The world economy is relatively stable despite the crisis in Iran, analyzes an economist

The resilience of Europe, Asia, and the world today is striking, remarks economist Emmanuelle Auriol from the Toulouse School of Economics on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, as the government has just raised its inflation forecast for the year 2026. “We have endured the shock of Trump’s tariffs, we have endured this energy crisis, and for now, the global economy is relatively stable, so there is no need to panic, we just need to hope that it does not last too long.”

According to the government, which shares forecasts with INSEE, inflation is expected to reach 1.9% by the end of 2026, up from 1.3% estimated before the start of the war in Iran. It could even surpass 2% next month or the following, a threshold that would trigger a wage movement with a mechanical increase in the minimum wage. “At that point, the minimum wage will increase, labor costs rise for companies, and this creates a spiral that leads to a general increase in prices.”

However, Emmanuelle Auriol does not believe in a “spiral of inflation” in France: “We had lower inflation than the rest of Europe, much lower, so a 2% rate seems feasible,” says Emmanuelle Auriol. “It depends very concretely on the duration of the crisis, if it is resolved quickly, the consequences for France and its inflation will be contained.” If the conflict does not last, according to the professor, “we will see immediate relaxation in oil prices, and thus the crisis will be over.”

“We have positive growth in France this year, driven in particular by certain sectors, notably the defense sector,” emphasizes Emmanuelle Auriol. “There are very dynamic countries in Europe, such as Spain, and even Italy, and we have made progress in understanding inflation: we have an independent central bank in Europe, which prevents governments from resorting to printing money when they have debt problems, like France. And as a result, we manage it very well.”

Despite this, the prices of fuels and energy weigh on all sectors. The consequences are unfolding, and the tourism sector is particularly affected. Air transport prices are the first to be hit, rising by 2% in a year, while they were down by 6% in March 2026. Airfare prices are likely to continue to rise as summer vacations approach.

Regarding daily life, fuel prices are struggling to come down, but for now, it is observed that food prices are not affected. Food is protected by recent trade negotiations that set prices. The costs in various sectors are particularly threatened by the blockade of fertilizer transports in the Strait of Hormuz. If the crisis persists, trade negotiations could be reopened on an exceptional basis, “as in 2022 with the war in Ukraine,” with “a very high risk of inflation,” warns Emmanuelle Auriol.