War in the Middle East: What the possible imminent agreement between the United States and Iran could contain

After weeks of laborious negotiations and repeatedly dashed hopes, an agreement between the United States and Iran appears to be moving closer, for good this time. The signing of a protocol, the “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding [capitale du Pakistan, médiateur des négociations]”, “has never been so close”, wrote on X the head of Iranian diplomacy Abbas Araghchi.

The spokesperson for his ministry confirmed on state television that an agreement had been found “on most points” and that a meeting had taken place to “obtain consensus between decision-making bodies” in Iran. Same positive tone from the side of the Prime Minister of Pakistan, main negotiator: “Peace has never been as close as today”, according to Shehbaz Sharif.

In Washington, a senior official, speaking on condition of anonymity, estimates that there is an “80 to 85%” probability of a framework agreement opening a period of sixty days of technical discussions. But what does this agreement contain? No official text has been published and the version given by the Iranian media and that put forward by Washington differ significantly. We take stock.

The Iranian version

The Iranian Mehr news agency published on Friday what it presented as a 14-point draft protocol, with drastic conditions: maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, right to uranium enrichment, rapid release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds to the stranger.

In an interview on state television on Friday, Abbas Araghchi for his part declared that the draft agreement provided for the lifting of the American blockade of Iranian ports and a new management of the Strait of Hormuz. “The naval blockade must be completely lifted. This is the first point mentioned in the agreement,” said the Minister of Foreign Affairs. “Iran has made a firm decision that the administration of the Strait of Hormuz will no longer be the same as before,” he added.

According to Abbas Araghchi, Iran also advocates a dilution of stocks of uranium enriched to 60% on Iranian soil. “Our position has always been that the only way to manage stocks of enriched materials is to dilute them in Iran,” the Iranian minister said. Diluting uranium to a level below 5%, well below the 90% required to make an atomic bomb, would considerably reduce the threat of enrichment for military purposes.

Divergences over nuclear power and Iranian assets

Washington, for his part, delivered a completely different version of the text. The compromise should, according to an official, lead to the reopening of Hormuz, a strategic sea route for global hydrocarbon trade. It must also lead to the “dismantling” of the Iranian nuclear program and allow the United States to recover highly enriched uranium, which would be “destroyed on site” then “taken out” of the country, contrary to what was advanced by the Iranians.

On the issue of assets, “the Iranians will not receive money and funds will not be released simply by signing an agreement or attending a meeting,” US Vice President JD Vance insisted. This point is central for Iran, after decades of sanctions which are suffocating its economy.

The Lebanese front, boiling point

Another major sticking point, the Lebanese front. According to Washington, the agreement under discussion with Iran does include Lebanon, as requested by Tehran even though Washington had always said it wanted to deal with this issue separately.

Lebanon was drawn into war on March 2, when Hezbollah targeted Israeli territory in support of Iran. Since then, Israel has been shelling the neighboring country, saying it wants to “eliminate” the Shiite movement, strikes which have left more than 3,700 dead.

A signature envisaged in the coming days

Switzerland has offered to host a possible signature, while a G7 summit in the presence of Donald Trump is due to begin on Monday in Evian, on the banks of Lake Geneva, on the French side.

The head of Iranian diplomacy, Abbas Araghchi, however indicated on Friday that the memorandum of understanding with the United States to end the war in the Middle East would be signed “remotely” once finalized, perhaps in “the coming days”.