After the Israeli strikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut, Iran retaliated against Israel, which in turn responded despite Donald Trump’s calls for appeasement. While this “ping-pong” of missiles continues, the American president is trying to avoid direct involvement of the United States in the conflict. According to the Wall Street Journalhe would only restart the war against Tehran in the event of the death of American soldiers. But in view of this renewed tension, between electoral calculation, Israeli pressure and standoff with the Islamic Republic, the situation appears more than ever highly unpredictable.
A column by Bruno Philip
Donald Trump’s words, a little more demonetized every day, only have a relative value. But the legendary versatility of the tenant of the White House does not prevent us from sometimes considering one of his remarks with interest, especially when it is made in private. A little scoop from Wall Street Journal In this regard, it has provided us with important information, because it demonstrates the extent to which Trump wants to do everything to avoid a resumption of the war against Iran. Sunday evening, the president’s request urging Benjamin Netanyahu not to respond to Iranian shots on Israel, the same day, confirmed the new Trumpist concern: finding an agreement with Tehran.
According to the WSJalways quite well informed of the rumors escaping from the Oval Office, the American president confided last week to his advisers that he was ready to push back the “red lines” beyond which a resumption of hostilities would be inevitable. Trump declared in confidence that he would only end the ceasefire with the Islamic Republic if the Tehran regime was responsible for the deaths of American soldiers. The “pause” in force for weeks therefore remains relevant. And the repeated skirmishes which recently pitted the Americans and Iranians against each other with artillery fire in the Persian Gulf would not be likely to lead to a resumption of hostilities. Unless, therefore, an American soldier loses his life during these battles which constitute, at a time when dialogue between Washington and Tehran is stalling, a form of continuation of the negotiation by other means.
The president’s reluctance to restart the conflict “suggests,” to quote the major New York financial daily, “that he might be willing to tolerate these minor outbreaks of violence for weeks, or even months, in order to avoid a broader conflict.” Trumpian reluctance has listed causes: with the approach of the midterms, these elections of the two houses of the United States Congress scheduled for the fall, it is difficult for him to justify the prolongation of a very unpopular war which has fractured the MAGA movement – Make America Great Again – “the” slogan of the billionaire during the campaign which allowed him to find his way back to power.
A contained war, but never really stopped
The United States and Iran still engaged last week in the most violent fighting since the ceasefire established in the Gulf at the beginning of April: Iranian missile and drone fire on American bases and on the Kuwait airport – results: one dead -, American replicas on Iranian installations A dangerous spiral, especially since the restart of the conflict on Sunday between Israel and Iran is another sign of the fragility of an increasingly theoretical ceasefire.
However, all this does not worry the American administration too much. Despite this atmosphere of “neither war nor peace”, fraught with threats, Secretary of State Marco Rubio prefers, like his “boss”, to play time-limiters. “These attacks [américaines] are a response to Iranian action,” Mr. Rubio said during a hearing in the House of Representatives on Wednesday. “If they don’t shoot, we don’t shoot, but we have to fight back. HAS”
How far are the Americans prepared to go to avoid a restart of hostilities? Would Trump go so far as to tolerate, within certain limits, Iranian provocations and Tehran’s delaying tactics, he the dictator in chief who decides everything, forcing his subordinates to explain his outbursts, his changes of foot, his setbacks, his rants?
At a time when his relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is experiencing a phase of tension, would the American president be willing to make certain accommodations with the Islamic Republic? The pressure he exerts on his ally “Bibi” regarding the war in Lebanon, whose fate is directly linked to that of Iran, constitutes in any case an indicator of the president’s mood. According to the Axios website, the situation in the “land of Cedar” recently gave rise to the most heated exchanges between the two men. The Israeli would have been agonized with insults: “You are a fucking crazy person. Without me, you would be in prison. I’m saving your ass. Everyone hates you now. Everyone hates Israel “because of this,” Trump reportedly shouted at him. Insults denied by those around the Israeli, but almost confirmed by Trump a little later in an interview with New York Post : “I was a little disturbed by the fact that he [Netanyahu] constantly fighting in Lebanon. HAS”
Trump’s Iranian trap
With Trump’s geopolitical vision reduced to cultural caricatures to explain the behavior of non-Americans, the president is multiplying reassuring declarations, not worrying about the resumption of limited fighting in the Gulf – at least until the resumption of Israeli-Iranian hostilities – since, he professes, “in this part of the world, a ceasefire means more moderate exchanges of fire†. During a conversation with some reporters at the White House, he recently said that the current situation was “under control” and that peace talks with Iran were “progressing.” “It takes two to dance tango. We hit them very hard on another point and they reacted,” he added. Still according to Wall Street Journalthe business magnate disguised as head of state would not be “in a hurry to conclude an agreement” with Tehran.
A too violent continuation of the war in Lebanon nevertheless risks derailing the peace process with Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Wednesday that Israeli attacks on Beirut would lead to a resumption of hostilities, linking the outcome of this conflict to the future of the US-Iran ceasefire. Even if the Lebanese capital was not targeted this time by the IDF, the war focusing on South Lebanon, Tehran put its threats into action on Sunday by targeting the Hebrew state.
Trump is now trapped by his own warlike logic – encouraged, if not dictated, by Netanyahu before the conflict began. The intensification of skirmishes in the Strait and the escalation of Israeli-Lebanese tensions have placed him in an impossible situation, a diplomatic dilemma hence it is likely to come out a loser or semi-loser: either it signs an agreement with Iran, but it will be far from satisfying its initial demands – particularly on the nuclear issue -, or it refuses, due to Iranian intransigence, and then opts for a continuation of the war, without being at all sure of succeeding in forcing the hand of a weakened but resilient Iranian regime.
“It does indeed seem to be at an impasse,” said Steven Cook, senior researcher for the Middle East at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank. “The Iranians are demonstrating that they are prepared to endure suffering and therefore have not capitulated. This places the president in a delicate situation. HAS”
