On Sunday, May 24, French President Emmanuel Macron called his Belarusian counterpart, Alexandre Lukashenko, to “warn him against the risks of being drawn into the Russian war against Ukraine.” A few hours earlier, Russia launched one of its most significant air attacks since the start of the year, notably targeting kyiv and its suburbs with an Oreshnik missile.
This was the first direct contact between the French president and Lukashenko since 2022.
- Despite Belarus’ proximity to near-vassalization Moscow, Minsk has worked to downplay its role in Putin’s war since launching the full-scale invasion in 2022.
- Although the Russian presence on its territory is significant, Belarusian airspace has rarely been used by the Russian army to launch drone and missile strikes on Ukraine in recent months.
Belarusian military leaders regularly denounce the “military threat” that weighs on the country due to “hostilities” between Russia and Ukraine. Tuesday May 26, the Secretary of State of the Belarusian Security Council, Alexander Volfovich, accused kyiv of trying to damage infrastructure by launching drones over Belarusian territory.
The situation on the border between Ukraine and Belarus has never been calmed since Moscow used Belarusian territory to launch its invasion in February 2022.
- These tensions, however, occur in a context of a sharp slowdown in the Russian advance on the front and constant pressure exerted by Ukraine via its drone strikes deep into Russian territory.
- On May 15, Volodymyr Zelensky declared that Moscow was trying “to further involve Belarus in the war against Ukraine”, in particular through the launch of operations from Belarusian territory towards Chernihiv and Kiev..
The Belarusian army currently numbers 45,000 to 50,000 men, slightly more than the “northern invasion group”, made up of Russian soldiers, which attempted to reach kyiv in February 2022 from Belarusian territory (35 000 to 37,000 men).
- At this stage, the most likely scenario could be an increase in the frequency and number of Russian drones launched into Ukraine from Belarusian territory.
- Accusations of kyiv’s launching of drones on its infrastructure could be used by Minsk to justify retaliatory strikes, in particular against the roads used by the Ukrainian army in the north-west of the country, which connect kyiv to Poland.
