Seven months after California voters overwhelmingly approved new congressional district lines mid-decade, the races for November are taking shape.
The new maps, drawn under the ballot referendum Proposition 50, were drawn to favor Democrats by minimizing the number of Republican-leaning districts. It was what Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-Calif., called a “proportional response†to Texas' mid-decade redistricting done at the behest of President Donald Trump to gain the upper hand in keeping the House in the 2026 midterms.
Redrawing the maps created one Republican stronghold in Southern California that set the stage for a rare incumbent versus incumbent face-off in the Golden State's 40th District. Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif., and Rep. Young Kim, R-Calif., are both expected to advance to the November election.
“To win in this new 40th, you have to be conservative and you need to be pro-Trump, pro-MAGA, but that’s not going to appeal at all to that 25% to 30% of the electorate that’s Democrat and there’s no Democrat on the ballot,†explained Christian Grose, the director of the University of Southern California's Democracy and Fair Elections Lab.Â
During the primary, the race between the two colleagues grew very ugly, with both campaigns leveling personal attacks and accusations that they weren't true conservatives. President Donald Trump did not weigh in on the election, though both are eager for his endorsement.
Calvert led Kim in Riverside County, a majority of his current district, by a wide margin. But Kim narrowed in on Calvert in Orange County, where her current district is mostly situated. Despite his expected top finish, the three-decade incumbent did not earn 50% of the vote, meaning both Calvert and the three-term incumbent Kim have a lot of campaigning to do before the fall — not just to consolidate Republican support, but to potentially gain Democratic support.
“The group of Democrats that are in the minority might be the swing voters to decide if Calvert or Kim wins, so it’s going to be kind of an interesting general election dynamic where they go really conservative for the majority of the district, but some of the Democrats might provide the winning margin,†Grose explained.
Another congressional race garnering national attention is in California 6th District, where incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced to the general election after becoming an independent in March.
Kiley was strongly opposed to the wave of gerrymandering that Texas' redistricting set off across the country and has introduced legislation to ban mid-decade redistricting. It's failed to gain traction in the Republican-controlled Congress.
“We have a history of people in California changing parties from Republican [to] Independent and not winning, basically not doing as well, because there’s no party to go along with you. So I think you know his performance there is pretty strong,†Grose said.Â
But he cautioned that the battle through November remains uphill for Kiley.
“Democrats got a majority of the vote in the district, so when you sum all the Democratic candidates running, they’re about 50%, so that doesn’t bode well for Kevin Kiley,†he added.
But the election is still technically not over.
Across the state, ballots were still being counted Tuesday from last week's primary election. The delay, according to officials, is due to the large number of mail-in ballots and the state's law that allows ballots postmarked by election day to be counted if they are received up to seven days after the election.
The delay in counting the votes happens every election, but Republicans have capitalized on it in recent days to raise questions about the integrity of the vote.
“I think it’s raised a lot of skepticism among voters when they see these wide changes days and weeks after the election and you still can't get a result two or three weeks after an election happened,†said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., during a news conference Tuesday.
President Donald Trump, in an interview with Meet the Press that aired Sunday, claimed the election in California was “rigged.†His claims have not been substantiated, though Bill Essayli — a federal prosecutor for the Central District of California — claims he's pursuing multiple allegations of election fraud. No further details have been released by the FBI.
Grose said that he doesn't believe that the length of time California allows for ballot counting is what actually sows distrust in the election process.
“What sows distrust is presenting false conspiracy theories,†he said. “This is pretty common not just in California, but Arizona, Utah, Oregon, Washington. A lot of western states basically count ballots this way.â€
