Ukrainian drone attack in Russia: "A strong message sent to the population, a way of telling them that it is war"

• Ukraine made a massive strike against Russia over the weekend with nearly 600 drones.
• Results of this unprecedented attack since the start of the conflict: at least four dead.
• According to General Chauvency, these bombings send a clear message to the Russian population: this is not a special operation but indeed a war.

An unprecedented attack since the start of the conflict, in February 2022. kyiv struck Russia on the night of Saturday to Sunday May 17, using around 600 drones. If these reprisals for the Russian bombings which had taken place three days previously were expected, they were surprising by their scale but also by the number of targets. Moscow, so far spared, has itself been affected. General François Chauvency, geopolitical consultant on LCI, details the contours and consequences of this vast operation.

Is this massive attack an isolated act or is it a change in the balance of power between the two countries?

If the Ukrainians could have done it before, they would have done it. There are several possible messages. First of all: we have sufficient production capacities, and this capacity is sufficiently developed to strike anywhere, over a large part of Russia. Another hypothesis: we are capable of hitting Moscow. But they had already done it in the past, there’s not much new.

They have a massive strike capability, but the question is, can they do it every night, the same way the Russians do it? In any case there will be a message sent: if you hit kyiv, we will do the same thing. But I find it difficult to see today in the balance of power that Ukraine can hit Russia as much as it wants.

Do these drones sent by the hundreds illustrate a weakening of Russia, in particular its air defense capabilities?

We must take into consideration the extent of Russian territory, which is the largest in the world. We can’t protect everything. We have to make choices, with capacities that are always more or less limited. Everything depends on the saturation capacity of Ukrainian drones. Depending on the choice of target, more or fewer devices are used. Obviously, there is a gap somewhere.

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With the front frozen, aren’t these deep strikes on infrastructure the only way for Ukraine to attack its adversary?

Totally, but that goes for both sides. It has been emphasized for several days that kyiv is striking Russia on its infrastructure, in depth. But this has been the case for months. What the Russians have been doing for four years is the same thing. Armies can only fight sustainably if the economy is capable of keeping up with military efforts, and whether or not the population accepts the costs. We see that, on both sides, the two problems are mentioned.

In Russia, there is perhaps an additional factor: the fact that it is now hit openly. That drones have arrived in a massive manner in Russia, whatever the target, is a strong message sent to the population. A way of telling him: this is not a special operation, as the government explains, but a war.

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Is there a risk for Ukraine to cross a red line by killing many Russian civilians? Could this have an impact on Western support?

The Ukrainian discourse of saying that they spare civilian lives in war operations is not very relevant. Ditto on the Russian side. kyiv responds to Western sensitivity to maintain support. I have been very surprised, for four and a half years, to see that during strikes with 300, 400 drones, there are “only” three or four civilians killed. There is obviously collateral damage. The red line will be when we hit the symbols of power. Certain places were spared: the Kremlin or the presidential palace in kyiv.