The Irish low-cost airline Ryanair declined to present annual forecasts on Monday, citing a lack of visibility linked to the war in the Middle East, despite a sharp increase in profit for its just completed financial year.
The conflict “has created economic uncertainty and we still do not know when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen,” said the group’s managing director, Michael O’Leary, in a press release.
“In the absence of visibility for the second half of the year and given the high volatility of fuel prices and supply risks, it is far too early to provide at this stage any significant profit forecast” for the delayed annual financial year 2026-2027, he adds.
The company, which serves 36 countries, mainly in Europe, according to its website, benefits from coverage for 80% of its fuel needs in the current financial year, thanks to advance purchases at a cost of around $67 per barrel of kerosene.
But this has “climbed to more than 150 dollars per barrel” and world prices should “remain high compared to pre-conflict levels for a few months”, warns the boss of Ryanair.
“If the price of unhedged fuel remains at its current high levels”, the costs over the financial year could increase, he continues.
– “Bankruptcies” next winter –
Blocking the Strait of Hormuz for another year could even “result in significant bankruptcies of airlines in Europe (the) winter” next year, particularly among the most indebted and least covered players in the face of rising fuel prices, estimated Michael O’Leary, during a telephone conference with investors.
In addition to the conflict in the Middle East and the rise in kerosene prices, the company highlights that the war in Ukraine, “macroeconomic shocks”, strikes and “malfunctions in European air traffic control” constitute other factors of uncertainty for the 2026-27 financial year.
Michael O’Leary, known for his outspokenness, also attacked environmental taxes in the European Union, which “are expected to increase by a further 300 million euros this year, to around 1.4 billion euros, making air travel in Europe even less competitive”.
He intends to allocate the group’s growth “to regions and airports that have reduced aviation taxes and encourage traffic growth (such as Albania, Italy, Morocco, Slovakia and Sweden)” and move away from “high-tax, uncompetitive markets, such as Austria, Belgium, Germany” and parts of Spain.
Despite the uncertain outlook for the current financial year, the low-cost airline announced on Monday good results for its financial year ended at the end of March, with profits up 35%, to 2.174 billion euros, and turnover up 11%, to 15.544 billion euros.
– “Prudence in spending” –
The group, which is targeting 300 million passengers by 2034, transported 208.4 million passengers during its 2025-26 financial year, a figure up 4%.
It anticipates a further increase in traffic of 4%, to 216 million passengers, over the current financial year.
The results for 2025-26 are explained in particular by a 10% increase in ticket prices, which offset the 7% drop observed the previous year, Ryanair said.
But in a context of uncertainty linked to the war in the Middle East and the evolution of purchasing power, prices are starting to decline, the group indicated.
“Consumers have been burned by the surge in oil prices since March,” explained Dan Coatsworth, analyst at AJ Bell. “This has increased the cost of living and encourages greater prudence in spending” among households, which forces airlines to “lower prices, or at best keep them stable, simply to support demand,” he explained.
Ryanair’s shares lost around 1% at the end of the morning on the Dublin Stock Exchange.
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