War in the Middle East: why the Iranians are not giving in to Donald Trump in peace negotiations

On the 77th day of war, Iran displays a line of total firmness against its adversaries. For Tehran, time is on its side, with the idea that Donald Trump will end up giving in before it does. The American president was undoubtedly thinking of a brief conflict. But, day after day, Iranian leaders are getting tougher. Their strategy seems clear: drag Donald Trump into a war of attrition from which he would not emerge victorious.

Iran’s latest demands transmitted via Pakistan are indeed maximalist. Before even starting to negotiate nuclear power, which is the main American requirement, Tehran demands an end to the war and above all money. Around thirty billion dollars that belong to him, blocked for years in Qatar, China and a little in Germany.

If the Iranians are demanding money it is because it is vital for Tehran. The economy is in ruins, if they do not bring a profit to the population, they will take to the streets to demonstrate. But prolonging the state of war has another advantage for the regime: war kills popular protest. Power is safeguarded. A patriotic reflex even leads Iranians to criticize American and Israeli strikes, especially when they target civilian infrastructure.

Can Donald Trump give in on nuclear power?

Donald also needs a trophy, he cannot give in on nuclear power. The other problem preventing any negotiated outcome is that there is absolutely no trust between Iran and the United States. Tehran is convinced that if it gives in now without recovering money, the protests will start again, the United States and Israel will restart the war and in the end the regime will fall.

The military who rule Iran today believe that the ultimate goal of the United States, let alone Israel, is to overthrow them. So they do not want to give in first, neither on the Strait of Hormuz which they control, nor on the 450 kgs of enriched uranium which they preciously guard.

Their maximalism also comes from the fact that they have been deceived 3 times already by negotiations with the United States in 2018 when Donald. Trump withdrew from the international nuclear agreement and imposed new sanctions, then in June 2025 and last February when war was imposed on them while they were talking in Oman with Donald Trump’s emissaries.

Iran still capable of defending itself

In addition, if we are to believe the American intelligence services, they are not without ammunition or weapons. The CIA estimates that Iran still has 70% of its missile stocks, and that the American blockade of ports to prevent them from selling oil will only be really effective in three or four months at best. A period of time that brings us closer to the American mid-term elections in November is Iran’s other bet.

The objective is to make this war even more unpopular in the United States to make Trump and his Republican friends lose. To prolong the conflict also in order to maximize its effects on the world economy, with the rise in oil prices and the scarcity of fertilizers which no longer pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

During the pause in violence, Iranian missiles and drones are still being manufactured. Tehran also does not forget to engage in diplomacy, activating its Chinese ally, dividing its Gulf Arab neighbors. In short, Iranian power, even weakened by the war, continues to play poker to survive.