War in Ukraine: “Putin is nervous because things are not going very well for Russia” observes defense expert Ulrike Franke

It is sometimes said that if Russia did not win the War in Ukraine, after 4 and a half years, Ukraine did not lose either. For Ulrike Franke, researcher at the European Council for International Relations (ECFR) and expert on security and defense issues, Volodymyr Zelensky’s country is holding on. And not only does he hold on, but according to her, “The Ukrainian army is the only one in the world capable of waging drone warfare”. She was the guest of the Radio Classique morning show this Monday.

 

How do you interpret Vladimir Putin’s statement on the imminent end of the conflict in Ukraine, as well as the possibility of German mediation by Gerhard Schröder?

ULRIKE FRANKE: In my opinion, this is not a huge change. It was a simple sentence slipped into the end of the interview, not a real official statement. So I don’t expect this to significantly change Russian policy. That said, this is a good sign rather than a bad one: it shows that Vladimir Putin is starting to think about how to end this war.

He’s probably nervous, since we’re in the fifth year of this conflict and things aren’t going very well for Russia – she’s not winning, and who could have said that four and a half years ago? However, it’s not a sign of a real change in policy. The day before, during the Russian military parade, he said nothing. The war continues, and I imagine Vladimir Putin still hopes he can win it.

Ulrike Franke: “Gerhard Schröder is very close to Putin, that’s why his name was mentioned.”

But when he mentions Gerhard Schröder as a mediator, it is because he is thinking of an end to the fighting, right?

U.F. Maybe. This proposal is also very interesting. As a reminder, Gerhard Schröder was German chancellor until 2005, before Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, and the current chancellor Friedrich Merz – so that’s twenty years. Why mention this name? Because he is very close to Putin. When he left power in 2005, he went to work in Russia for a company Russian energy company, which earned it strong criticism in Germany.

Putin chooses his employee…

U.F. A little, yes. He is judged to be a rather successful chancellor on the national level, but on the international level, and particularly in his relationship with Putin and Russia, he is seen with a very critical eye. Moreover, the German media have not really discussed this proposal — one has the impression that it is some kind of bad joke, not something seriously.

That said, we need to think more seriously about one point: when a mediator comes into play, he will necessarily have to be accepted by both sides. It can’t be someone approved only by the Ukrainians and the West – Russia will also have to trust him to a certain extent. So it will be difficult to find the right profile. It will probably be someone more discreet. As for Gerhard Schröder, it’s interesting to think about it, but I don’t think it will be him.

The New York Times assures that at the current rate, if Russia wants to seize the entire Donbass, it would take 30 years

You say that the war is far from over despite this little sentence. Ukraine particularly masters drone technologies. Are you one of those who say that Ukraine has still not lost this war?

U.F. Absolutely. Ukraine did not lose this war. Let’s look at the current situation: we are in the fifth year of the conflict, and Ukraine is holding on. Russia has only occupied a small part of the territories it claims. THE New York Times recently calculated that at the current rate, if Russia wants to seize the whole of Donbass, it would take thirty years. Russia is barely moving forward. The fact that Ukraine is still holding means that they have not lost.

And let’s remember: during the Russian military parade on Red Square a few days ago, Ukrainian authorization was almost required to hold it – the Ukrainians indicated that they would not attack during the parade, which was also a strong signal sent to Russia. This parade was also much smaller than the previous ones, and the fear of a Ukrainian attack was palpable. The symbolic victory of all this should not be underestimated. That said, Russia did not lose either. It is entirely possible that Ukraine will lose again. But after four and a half years of war, the fact that Ukraine is still holding on, and holding on well, is impressive.

Let’s imagine that the war ends in a few months, or even one or two years. Is this a sufficient reason for Europe to stop worrying about Russian ambitions and the hybrid war that Russia is waging? Europe wants to be ready to respond to Russia in 2030. Will it be there?

U.F. Unfortunately, while this war ends, that does not mean the threats disappear. If Putin’s regime continues, the reasons for concern remain. The secret services of NATO and several member countries have analyzed what Russia produces in terms of military equipment: it is no longer only producing for the Ukrainian war, it is already preparing for a potential future conflict with NATO countries.

Ulrike Franke: “Ukraine is the only army in the world truly capable of waging drone warfare.”

Capabilities are being built, and the intention to harm member states is constantly repeated by Putin and his entourage. Added to this is hybrid war – or hybrid peace – with cyber attacks, sabotage, disinformation, drones observed above critical infrastructures throughout Europe. Russia clearly wants to attack Europe and NATO in one way or another. Are we sufficiently prepared today? Not yet. But everywhere in Europe, and particularly on the eastern flank, in Germany and elsewhere, rearmament is underway. Equipment is purchased, budgets increase, discussions on conscription and increased numbers are opened. Europe is preparing, but it will still take time.

Two weeks ago, Finnish President Alexander Stubb praised the effectiveness of the Ukrainian army, which he considers to be the largest, most modern and most efficient in Europe. Do you share this assessment? Has Ukraine taken a technological lead much greater than that of Germany, France or Europe in general?

U.F. Technologically, yes, absolutely. Ukraine is today the only army in the world truly capable of waging drone warfare, and also of fighting drones.

Moreover, when the war in the Middle East broke out, it was the Gulf countries that went to see Ukraine to ask for help against Iranian drones. There is a real Ukrainian advance in everything related to technology and innovation cycles. Ukraine is extremely fast in adapting its systems, from one week to the next.

On everything else, we must keep in mind that Ukraine is a country at war – it does things that we are not capable of doing, precisely because we are in relative peace.

You say that in terms of innovation, Ukraine is moving faster than France and its partners.

U.F. One hundred percent. Every few weeks, Ukraine – and Russia too – modifies their drone and counter-drone systems, because it is an absolute necessity in this game of cat and mouse. We are really struggling to keep up with this speed. We can learn from Ukraine, particularly in terms of technology and innovation.

“German rearmament is necessary for Germany and for the whole of Europe.”

A subject concerns many observers today: the desire for German rearmament, historic in its scale. Some, notably the French, are worried: if Germany rearms as it has ambitions, with the rise of the far right and the AfD, should we fear a return of certain ghosts of history?

U.F. It is absolutely necessary to separate these two subjects. German rearmament, this historic turning point in Turning pointis simply necessary. We have just mentioned the Russian threat, but we must also mention the fact that the United States is, more or less, abandoning Europe. German rearmament is therefore necessary – not only for Germany, but for the whole of Europe.

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I say it very clearly: this is good news for Europe, including for France. This must be distinguished from the rise in votes for the AfD. I understand that European partners, and many Germans themselves, are worried about this.

But I don’t believe that the AfD represents a threat to other Europeans – this should not be exaggerated. It is a non-pro-European party, clearly nationalist, but asking whether Germany could once again become a threat to Europe is certainly going too far in this context.