Vincent Lemire, historian, professor of contemporary history at the University of Gustave-Eiffel and author of “Jérusalem: L’histoire n’est jamais écrite” published by Albin Michel, was the guest on Tout est politique on franceinfo on Saturday May 2nd.
France Télévisions: Where is Israel heading? Spiral of war, authoritarian escalation, democracy under threat since the trauma of the massacres of October 7th. Israeli society seems to be radicalizing. In what state do you think the country is, nearly three years after the attacks of October 7th?
Vincent Lemire, historian, professor of contemporary history at the University of Gustave-Eiffel and author of “Jérusalem: L’histoire n’est jamais écrite” published by Albin Michel: In a never-ending post-trauma state. That’s what’s terrible. And why? Because we have a Prime Minister who constantly nurtures this trauma, who always moves from one war to another. I have many friends who are leaving Israel at the moment, or preparing to leave Israel, or considering it, or getting passports. The numbers are incredible. Trained doctors in Israel, at the moment when they have to decide to work, whether to be affiliated in Israel or abroad, 40% of a cohort says: we are leaving abroad. The country is emptying of its elites, its upper management, its doctors, its researchers, its artists, its left as well. On the contrary, people coming to Israel today are crossing paths on the plane. For some of them, they come to unravel. So, in the short term, for Benjamin Netanyahu, it’s an electoral windfall. In the long term, for Israel, it’s a disaster.
And the words you would put on Israel’s wars, since Benjamin Netanyahu says he has seven. The leaders of Israel talk about an existential war. Are they right?
Benjamin Netanyahu has managed to create this concept of an existential war for wars that are generally preventive wars. We’re going back to the 1967 schema, the Six-Day War, a preventive attack against Egypt. In that case, there was an imminent attack from Egypt during the Six-Day War. Here, it’s a bit like the war against Iraq. We’re staging a threat, this isn’t new, it’s his only ideological backbone. Benjamin Netanyahu has always changed his mind on everything, but on Iran he has always remained steadfast, he was waiting for this war. It hasn’t brought the expected effects yet in terms of electoral results, but it maintains the country in a state of extreme tension.
And at the same time, the ceasefire holds, at least in Iran. Is it about to break in Lebanon? We’ve seen rockets fired by Hezbollah, bombings. However, is it Donald Trump who is holding Benjamin Netanyahu on Iran?
We can hope for it. We don’t even know what to hope for anymore, which one is the most warmongering. These ceasefires are always a bit asymmetrical because there have still been dozens of Lebanese deaths since the ceasefire. Since the ceasefire, there have been 733 deaths in Gaza, an average of 4 per day. So, it’s always a ceasefire from one side. At some point, it eventually breaks. I’m only waiting for one thing, that in a few days or weeks, there will be rockets fired again.
How do you describe Benjamin Netanyahu’s policy towards Gaza?
It’s eternal war. He is waiting for one thing, to go back there. Today, the 2 million Gazans are squeezed into 40% of the territory. That famous red line keeps moving westward. Now, it’s 41-42%. There are 2 million residents of Gaza living there.
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