At the Strait of Hormuz, nerve

The showdown continues in the Middle East on Friday, April 24. With no negotiations planned between Washington and Tehran, the tension is escalating around the Strait of Hormuz. A nerve-wracking battle for control of the strait is unfolding, attracting significant attention. This tension manifests in both naval warfare and communication battles.

In this arena, Donald Trump struck a triumphant tone on Thursday in the Oval Office. “We have total control of the strait,” asserts the American president, indicating that no ship “can enter or exit without approval from the United States Navy.” Later on social media, he mentioned “having all the time in the world” in relation to Iran.

In reality, it remains challenging to assign control of the strait. What stands out recently is the significant drop in traffic: barely over five passages per day since Sunday, compared to over a hundred before the start of the conflict.

Circulation is paralyzed, yet incidents are increasing. Not a day goes by without a ship being targeted or intercepted. On Thursday, April 23, the American navy carried out the interception and inspection of a sanctioned tanker in the Indian Ocean. This operation was heavily publicized on social media, similar to when the Revolutionary Guards stormed a cargo ship attempting to leave the Persian Gulf.

To increase pressure, the American president confirmed the arrival of a third aircraft carrier in the region. He also ordered to “destroy all Iranian boats laying mines in the strait.” This tension led to another surge in oil prices on Thursday evening. The price of Brent crude remains above $100, and concerns are growing: if the blockade continues, Iran’s storage capacities, as well as those of the Gulf countries, could quickly reach their limits. “The greatest threat in history,” according to the director of the International Energy Agency.

The consequences of the crisis are increasingly being felt. It’s as if all warning lights on the dashboard are flashing: alarm signals are appearing on all continents and in all sectors affected by this energy crisis, impacting not only oil but also other commodities like fertilizers. Amid rising prices and the risk of shortages, the crisis will push over 30 million people back into poverty, warns the UN. This situation is even more worrying as an anticipated time lag effect is expected: the longer the crisis lasts, the longer it will take to return to normalcy.