CHRONICLE. After threatening to bring Iran back to the Stone Age, Donald Trump is now working to suffocate its economy. But Tehran, weakened, knows that time is running out.
All those fortunate enough to have visited the Tehran bazaar long ago and bought one of those magnificent carpets that showcase Iranian craftsmanship know one thing: never show too much interest in the rug that caught your eye at first glance.
In diplomacy, as in the bazaar, Iranians often successfully practice the art of finding the weakness in those they negotiate with. This was demonstrated extensively during the lengthy negotiations in 2015 with President Obama’s team that led to the JCPOA agreement, which limited Iran’s nuclear development. Trump quickly denounced this agreement in 2018.
Even after enduring 40 days of intense bombings which many Americans believed would overthrow the regime, the Iranian government not only survived but likely hardened under a command increasingly in the hands of the Revolutionary Guard.
Military and political deadlock!
The population, even if hostile to the regime, cannot risk another bloodbath like January 8th. This situation allows the government’s propaganda to remain aggressive towards the “Great Satan” and its allies.
Trump has opted for the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, gradually suffocating Iran’s economy by depriving it of oil revenues, vital resources, and lucrative commissions. The US Navy, seemingly influential in this decision, hopes to pressure Iran into returning to negotiations on terms more favorable to the Americans.
In this showdown where each side claims to hold the upper hand, American military strategists estimate that if the blockade is airtight, the Iranians may not hold out beyond a few months due to oil-related reasons.
Resuming combat, a step into the unknown
The United States understand this problem well: in 2020, due to the drop in oil prices, several American oil producers went bankrupt, halting operations and leading to significant pollution issues.
Therefore, a battle of chances is currently unfolding between Tehran and Washington – Trump’s odds with the Republicans in Congress and American public opinion before the midterms, and the Iranians facing economic suffocation, the impact on the population, and the risks to their oil operations. Unless one of the parties decides on the risky move of resuming combat.
