A few hours after Donald Trump’s announcement on Tuesday evening (21.04) of the extension of the ceasefire with Iran in effect since April 8, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced that they had intercepted two ships trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran continues to block this strategic passage off the Iranian coast, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally pass in times of peace. This blockade has become a survival leverage for the Iranian regime, as disruptions in the strait drive up hydrocarbon prices and weaken the global economy.
According to the British maritime security agency UKMTO, Iranian shots reportedly also hit a container ship off the coast of Oman. Another cargo vessel leaving the strait was also targeted, but the origin of the shots was not specified.
These incidents highlight the fragility of the ongoing truce.
At the same time, the U.S. military has also imposed a blockade in this area to prevent any ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports. Washington’s stated goal is to asphyxiate the Iranian regime by cutting off its financial resources.
Donald Trump claimed that Iran was “financially collapsing” due to the blockade.
In this war of communication, Tehran has assured that the American blockade has not impacted the country’s ability to obtain essential goods and food for the population.
Diplomatically, the situation remains unclear. New discussions scheduled in Islamabad, Pakistan earlier this week did not occur. The American and Iranian delegations have not attended, with the U.S. canceling their participation due to Iran’s refusal to allow their representatives. Tehran conditions the resumption of talks on the lifting of the American naval blockade. On Wednesday, Donald Trump vaguely mentioned that new negotiations could take place in the coming days.
On another front of the war, new direct talks between Israel and Lebanon are set to take place in Washington on Thursday, according to American diplomacy. A ceasefire is in place between Israel and Hezbollah, but both parties accuse each other of violating it.
The economic repercussions remain disastrous worldwide. Germany, the leading European economy, has now halved its growth forecast for this year due to the energy crisis caused by the blockade of hydrocarbon transport in the Strait of Hormuz. GDP growth is expected to be around 0.5% compared to the 1% forecast before the Middle East war.
According to the German Minister of Economy, Germany “is once again at the bottom of the EU growth rankings, despite significant fiscal stimuli.” The country was already particularly affected by the war in Ukraine and its strong dependence on Russian gas.
Italy has slightly revised its growth forecast downward to 0,6% in 2026, while France expects 0.9%.
