Football. England: from title to survival, a suspenseful end of season

In this final stretch of the Premier League season, with only three matchdays remaining, the games are still open for the title race, as Arsenal and Manchester City chase the top spot, Tottenham and West Ham battle to avoid relegation, and teams compete for European spots.

Title Duel
Arsenal is in a strong position to lift the trophy in the Premier League, twenty-two years after the “Invincibles” of Arsène Wenger and Thierry Henry, who won the title in 2004 without losing a single match. The Gunners will reclaim the top spot if they win their remaining three matches against West Ham (current top relegation candidate), Burnley (already relegated), and Crystal Palace (fifteenth).

Any dropped points could revive Manchester City’s hopes, currently second with five points less but with one extra match to play (against Palace next Wednesday). City’s final schedule, with matches against Brentford, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa – respectively seventh, sixth, and fifth in the rankings, promises to be challenging. Pep Guardiola, the Citizens’ coach, stated on Friday that they aim to “put pressure on Arsenal by winning our matches.” “That’s all we have to do. That’s all we can do,” he emphasized.

In the case of a tie in points, the title will go to the team with the best goal difference or, if that criterion doesn’t break the tie, to the team that scored the most goals. In the event of another tie, the head-to-head record (in City’s favor) will be decisive.

Fight for the Champions League…
Behind the podium (Arsenal, City, and Manchester United), there are two, maybe three, spots up for grabs for the next Champions League. The teams in fourth and fifth place, Liverpool and Aston Villa, each with 58 points, are six points ahead of current sixth-placed team Bournemouth and are on track to secure those spots.

This could happen as early as this weekend if they win their respective matches and Bournemouth fails to defeat Fulham (11th), or if they draw and Bournemouth loses. The sixth spot could also be a qualification for the major European tournament if Aston Villa finishes fifth and wins the Europa League final on May 20 against Fribourg.

… and for the Europa League and Conference League
Currently, excluding the scenario described above, the sixth-placed team in the English championship qualifies for the Europa League, and the seventh-placed team qualifies for the Conference League. There may be two additional English clubs in the Europa League: Chelsea, if they don’t secure qualification through the league but win the FA Cup final on May 16 against Manchester City, and Crystal Palace, if they win the Conference League final on May 27 against Rayo Vallecano.

Playing in Europe would be a first for Bournemouth (6th, 52 pts) and Brentford (7th, 51 pts). Everton (10th, 48 pts) hasn’t played in Europe since the 2017/2018 season, and Fulham (11th, 48 pts) since the 2011/2012 season, also in the Europa League. Brighton (8th, 50 pts) and Chelsea (9th, 48 pts) are sandwiched between them.

Relegation Battle
With Wolverhampton and Burnley already destined for relegation, there is one more spot in the elevator to drop to the Championship (Second English Division). Currently, the top relegation candidate West Ham (18th, 36 pts) and their main rival Tottenham (17th, 37 pts) are neck and neck before the final three matchdays.

The Hammers fell back into the relegation zone last weekend after a heavy 3-0 defeat to Brentford, coupled with Spurs’ victory over Aston Villa (2-1), their second consecutive win. Tottenham will finish their season with three matches in London, against Leeds and Everton at home, and a short trip to Chelsea in between. West Ham will travel to Newcastle between two home matches against Arsenal and Leeds.