The three defeats of the Spanish clubs in the European Cup, coupled with the victories of Bayern Munich and Fribourg, have allowed Germany to catch up with Spain in the race for an extra spot.
The race for the extra spot will be thrilling until the end of the season. Since the 2024-2025 season and the change in the format of the Champions League, UEFA offers two directly qualifying spots for the competition to the two best nations of the current season in the UEFA ranking. Like last season, England is already certain to secure one of them. The identity of the holder of the second spot is much more uncertain. Three candidates are still in the running, even though Portugal’s chances are almost nil (0.1%, with 20,100 points in 2025-2026).
Germany has a 63% chance of finishing 2nd
This extra spot will therefore be contested between Germany and Spain, with a very important operation carried out by the representatives of the Bundesliga this week. The victories (and qualifications) of Bayern Munich against Real Madrid (4-3) on Wednesday in the Champions League quarter-final second leg, and Fribourg on the field of Celta Vigo (1-3) in the Europa League have allowed Germany to increase its total to 21,214.
Germany is now right on the heels of Spain, the very fragile holder of the 2nd place (21,406) after its three defeats by its representatives on Thursday: Betis against Braga (2-4), Celta at home against Fribourg (1-3) in the Europa League, and Rayo Vallecano against Athens (3-1) in the Conference League. The Madrid suburban club saved face by qualifying for the semifinals (+0.063) where they will face Strasbourg.
During the week, Germany earned 0.929 points compared to 0.500 for Spain, who are relying heavily on a glorious finish by their last two representatives: Atletico Madrid in the Champions League and Rayo. Germany will be supporting Bayern and Fribourg to surpass the Liga teams. According to the website Football Meets Data, they are favored in the predictions with a 62.7% chance of finishing in the Top 2, compared to Spain’s 37.2%.
France, on the other hand, can no longer contend for the extra spot. But the strong performances of PSG in the Champions League and Strasbourg in the Conference League are bringing them closer to the total points from last season (17,535 compared to 17,928 in 2024-2025). They have the sixth-best European record of the current season.
