SURVEY. Darmanin in the storm Lyhanna

This week, the government information service (SIG) noted that the impact of the Lyhanna affair on public opinion was much greater than other recent news items, such as the murders of young Philippine or Elias. He also noted that the reactions on social networks came, unlike these previous cases, more from anonymous French people or those involved in associative networks rather than from elected officials or political activists.

This GIS analysis is an additional indicator of the immensity of the emotion and anger felt in the depths of the country after the death in Gers of the 11-year-old girl. Logically, the executive pays the consequences, as measured by the latest delivery of the Ipsos BVA-Cesi engineering school barometer for La Tribune Sunday.

In one month, Emmanuel Macron lost 2 points and only received 19% favorable judgments. For Sébastien Lecornu, the fall is much harsher. With 24% of favorable judgments, it recorded a decline of 4 points, while unfavorable opinions gained 7 (to 66%). The Prime Minister stands out in particular among LR supporters (-10 points). Gérald Darmanin also sees his rating at half mast.

In the ranking of ministers judged to be the best by the French, he concedes 5…points. The Minister of Justice nevertheless remains, by far, first with 39%. He is also losing on the right.  As soon as a failure is perceived in the regalian domain, the sanction comes immediately from the voters of that side », explains Brice Teinturier, deputy general director of Ipsos.

Faced with the storm caused by the murder of Lyhanna, Gérald Darmanin chose to go to the front line, multiplying himself in the audiovisual media in particular in order to recall that he had issued a circular in January 2025 ordering prosecutors to concentrate on “ acts committed to harm children ». His four-year stint at the Ministry of the Interior gave him experience in crisis management.

His first nature leads him not to hide when things shake up. Immediately, the Minister of Justice also perceived the flammable dimension of this drama. Between public opinion and the magistrates, the divorce is so deep today. For him, there exists among the French a “ epsteinization of minds », that is to say the feeling that the powerful will always benefit much more than others from a certain amount of laissez-faire.

From now on, Gérald Darmanin is awaiting the conclusions of the administrative investigation he ordered in order to shed light on all the judicial failures which allowed the murder of Lyhanna. They are expected, according to our information, on June 22. The Minister of Justice has decided to take all the necessary individual sanctions. Will this calm the calls for resignation to which he has been the subject and which have continued to mount throughout the week?

Thursday June 11, Jordan Bardella indeed joined, while Tuesday Marine Le…Pen had not requested it. Ten months before the presidential election, it is the National Rally which is taking full advantage of this context. In our survey, the satisfaction rate in the event of the accession of the president of the RN or the deputy of Pas-de-Calais to the Élysée in 2027 has never been so high. With 37%, Jordan Bardella earns 3 points; with 35%, Marine Lepen in second place.

« The Lyhanna affair refuels the RN vote manufacturing machine », concludes Brice Teinturier. Among the concerns of the French, that relating to the level of delinquency increased by 7… points in one month and that relating to the level of immigration by 6… points, while the violence which followed PSG’s victory in the Football Champions League also left its mark on opinion….