Jeanette Süssresearcher at the Committee for the Study of Franco-German Relations at Ifri, answers questions from Laurence Aubron.
How can we explain this lasting dynamic in the Länder of the former GDR, thirty-five years after reunification?
The progression of the AfD in the East is explained firstly by a feeling of downgrading which remains very present in part of the population in East Germany, despite the economic progress made since reunification. Many East German voters still consider that their interests and identity are insufficiently represented by Berlin’s political elites. The AfD succeeded in transforming this unease into a political narrative structured around criticism of immigration, the cost of the ecological transition and a rejection of federal institutions. The party also benefits in East Germany from stronger militant roots and more advanced social trivialization than in the West. The war in Ukraine, inflation and debates on energy have reinforced this protest vote. Finally, the gradual collapse of the major traditional parties, notably the SPD and Die Linke, has left considerable political space for the AfD.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania also, the AfD now comes first in several electoral trends, ahead of the SPD and the CDU. Are we seeing a normalization of the AfD vote in Eastern Germany, including in regions long dominated by the Social Democrats?
Yes, we are clearly seeing a normalization of the AfD vote in part of East Germany. The party is no longer seen only as a one-off protest vote, but as an established political force capable of attracting votes from all social categories. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, this is particularly striking because the SPD historically has a solid foothold there. From now on, the AfD also appeals to younger voters, workers but also self-employed people and the middle classes worried about economic transformations. This trivialization is also observed in local public debate, where the presence of the party is less shocking than a few years ago. The risk for traditional parties is that this dynamic ends up becoming structural and no longer simply cyclical.
The AfD campaign in Saxony-Anhalt is becoming strongly radicalized around issues of identity, migration and culture, with a particularly offensive regional program adopted in Magdeburg. Is the party now seeking to govern alone and definitively deconstruct the “sanitary cordon” imposed by the other parties?
The AfD today seeks to appear less as a simple opposition party than as a credible alternative to power. In Saxony-Anhalt, the program adopted in Magdeburg marks an assumed radicalization on migration, identity and societal issues. The party wants to show its electorate that it is no longer seeking to moderate itself in order to enter coalitions, but that it is capable of governing with an absolute majority. This strategy also aims to increase pressure on the CDU, particularly in the East, where certain conservative elected officials regularly question the maintenance of the “sanitary cordon”. At the same time, the AfD knows that an absolute majority remains difficult to achieve and that its ability to govern will also depend on the evolution of the other parties.
Does this anti-AfD front remain politically tenable if the party permanently becomes the leading force in several Eastern Länder?
Maintaining the cordon santé is becoming more and more difficult to manage politically, especially in regions where the AfD greatly exceeds the other parties. The CDU is particularly under pressure because part of its electoral base believes that it is becoming inconsistent to systematically exclude the first party in certain Länder. Until now, the national leaderships have maintained a very firm line against any cooperation with the AfD, in particular because of the radical positions of the party and the surveillance of part of its structures by the German intelligence services. But the more the AfD advances, the more complex and fragile alternative coalitions become. This fuels the party’s discourse of victimization, which accuses the elites of circumventing the will of the people. In the medium term, this situation could cause significant internal tensions within the CDU, particularly between the East and West of the country.
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