Reservations have been decreasing since the beginning of March, last-minute arbitrations, shifts towards Southern Europe, Canada, or the Caribbean… The conflict is already beginning to impact vacation choices for the summer.
United this week in Tetouan for the annual forum of the Syndicat des entreprises du tour-operating (SETO), French tour operators provided an initial update on summer 2026. Until the end of February, the signals were positive: nearly 48% of reservations were already recorded, Mediterranean destinations were confirming their appeal, and some long-haul destinations, like Egypt, were showing a remarkable return. However, the outbreak of war in the Middle East abruptly changed the situation.
Before this sudden halt, European destinations were still dominating travel intentions. Spain, up by 1.7%, remained at the top, followed by Greece, slightly down by 1.8%, and Italy, up by 3.6%. France also showed a significant increase of 15.2%, indicating a renewed interest in nearby getaways. Morocco continued its momentum with +8.5%.
On medium and long-haul routes, the recovery seemed to be confirming as well. Egypt stood out with a clear growth of +51.9%, showing a strong comeback. Other destinations also performed well, such as Turkey (+9.3%) or Mauritius (+12.2%), indicating a gradual rebalancing of international tourist flows.
A significant drop in reservations has been observed since the beginning of March. According to preliminary data shared during the SETO press conference led by Patrice Caradec, reservations dropped by about 15% after the first week, and then by 25% the following week. This rapid reversal is not limited to the most affected destinations but is weighing heavily on the entire region. Even dynamic markets like Egypt or Turkey are feeling the effects.
Nonetheless, the market has not stagnated. Professionals rather note a shift in reservations. Southern Europe remains a safe haven, driven by its accessibility and proximity. At the same time, the Caribbean, Canada, or certain Atlantic destinations are becoming more appealing. While exact figures are not yet available, the SETO mentions overall growth in these markets ranging between 10% and 35%.
Summer 2026 is shaping up to be more uncertain than expected at the beginning of the year. The desire to travel remains, but travelers are now balancing more and paying more attention to risk perception. In this context, last-minute reservations might gain popularity. For professionals, the season is not compromised, but it appears to be more nervous, fluctuating, and exposed than usual to international news developments.
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