According to Fidel Martin (Exoé), the markets no longer see geopolitical crises as a risk but as a driver of speculation.
PARIS – The New York Stock Exchange no longer fears Donald Trump’s statements on Iran; on the contrary, it seems to revel in them. This is the observation made on June 12, 2026 by Fidel Martin, president of the financial services company Exoé. In an analysis, he deciphers how geopolitical uncertainty, formerly perceived as a major threat, has transformed into a powerful engine of speculation for investors.
While the American president increased the number of contradictory announcements, evoking military strikes against Iran before suspending them, Wall Street reacted with disconcerting euphoria. The simple postponement of a potential intervention was enough to push the main indices up, while oil prices fell, signaling a return of appetite for risk.
Geopolitics as a speculative engine
For Fidel Martin, this paradoxical reaction signals a profound paradigm shift for financial markets.
“We have entered an economy where geopolitics is no longer just a risk factor; it has become a speculative asset », analyzes the president of Exoé.
He emphasizes that a simple message on a social network or a declaration from the Oval Office can today move more capital than an economic indicator traditionally scrutinized by analysts. Markets would no longer react to the events themselves, but to the personality and strategies of Donald Trump.
Hormuz, epicenter of speculation
The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a quarter of global oil flows pass, has become the perfect illustration of this new phenomenon. Each threat of closure should logically cause a shock wave on the energy markets and push investors towards safe havens.
However, a different scenario seems to have taken hold. According to the analysis, investors are now betting on a predictable cycle: a verbal escalation drives up tension and oil prices, followed by an announcement of negotiations or a deal “historique” which causes prices to fall and stocks to rise again. For Fidel Martin, investors have developed a troubling conviction: “Donald Trump doesn’t create uncertainty, he creates it ».
A risk that has become behavioral
This new dynamic is transforming the very nature of financial risk. For decades, risk assessment was based on the health of companies, growth prospects or the monetary policies of central banks. From now on, it integrates a behavioral dimension: the anticipation of the reactions of a single political leader.
This calculation involves a major danger: by considering geopolitical crises as temporary episodes intended to be quickly resolved, the markets underestimate the risks of a real slippage.
“The day when escalation will no longer be a negotiating lever but a military reality, the awakening could be brutal”, warns Fidel Martin.
The expert concludes by questioning the viability of a stock market model built on a « poudrière gépolitique »recalling that the fundamental laws of the economy have never been suspended by a message on social networks.
À proposal of Exodus
Founded in 2006, Exoé is a company approved by the Prudential Control and Resolution Authority (ACPR) and regulated by the Financial Markets Authority (AMF).
With a team of 14 people, it offers an expert trading table for asset management professionals, offering a technological, regulatory and human outsourcing service for the execution of their stock market orders.
via Presse Agence (edited from a press release transmitted to the editor).
