Are the United States still our allies? While, since his return to the Oval Office, Donald Trump has attacked seven countries, threatened to invade Greenland, and continues to intimidate the 27 with customs duties, confidence no longer seems so obvious, according to a report from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). By surveying 15 countries of the Old Continent – including France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the United Kingdom – the organization found that Europeans no longer believed in the “American security guarantee” and on the contrary felt “deep mistrust […] towards the United States.
Thus, only 11% of them still see Washington as an “ally” today. A “historically low” level, twice lower than that of November 2024, i.e. before the election of Donald Trump. And if most describe the United States as a “necessary partner”, a quarter of those surveyed, “particularly in Denmark, France, Spain and Switzerland, consider the American president as a rival, or even an adversary”, note the ECFR experts. A perception which would be particularly common among left-wing voters in the west of the continent.
“Europeans don’t expect America to protect them”
Many Europeans surveyed believed that relations with the White House would improve once Donald Trump had left. In the meantime, if they do not lose hope that the United States will eventually “return to the transatlantic alliance” – which the billionaire has regularly described as a “paper tiger”, threatening to slam the door of NATO – “the Europeans do not expect America of Donald Trump protects them”, notes the ECFR. Result: they rely more on their neighbors in the Old Continent. With the exception of Bulgaria, in all the countries surveyed, the majority said they were certain that “at least some European countries” would come to their aid if their country was attacked. The Danes are convinced of this: 43% are “very confident”, 45% “rather confident”. The consensus is all the more striking as it also exists in states where the anti-European far right is powerful, note the authors.
In this context, more and more citizens of the Old Continent want to protect themselves against the lack of American reliability by strengthening European defense, particularly against Russia. To achieve this, respondents were “generally in favor of an increase in defense spending and an independent European nuclear deterrent.” An opinion shared by the Spaniards who had nevertheless refused to increase the share of GDP allocated to defense, despite repeated reprimands from Donald Trump.
However, Europeans are much more reluctant to the idea of reducing national public spending to inject into the defense budget. Opposition is most pronounced in Italy (63%), then in Austria (59%), Germany (56%), Spain (54%) and finally Denmark (52%). On this theme, the French stand out from their neighbors: 8% “firmly support” this proposal and 35% “tend to support it”.
A defense made in Europe
Europeans are also generally inclined to collaborate with their neighbors: 47% of those questioned supported the idea of a collective EU loan to finance an increase in military spending. In addition, in all countries except Italy, the majority of respondents, including 66% of French people, believe that their country should buy less American military equipment to invest in European industry.
Finally, the idea of replacing NATO with a new exclusively European defense body does not appeal either, garnering only 29% of favorable opinions. Faced with these results, the ECFR believes that the many leaders of the Old Continent who have positioned themselves in favor of European defense should strike while the iron is hot, before citizens change their minds.
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