Oil advances through geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East

Washington – Oil prices rose slightly on Monday in the face of persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, the suspension of hostilities between Iran and Israel having however limited the surge in prices.

The price of a barrel of North Sea Brentfor delivery in August, rose 1.25% to US$94.25.

Its American equivalent, the barrel of West Texas Intermediatefor delivery in July, gained 0.84% ​​to US$91.30.

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At the start of the session, the Brent had taken up to 5.36%, pushed by the resumption of direct attacks between Iran and Israel over the weekend, for the first time since the truce concluded two months ago.

Prices then slowed their rise during the session after the two countries announced a cessation of hostilities, each party however threatening to respond forcefully to possible new attacks.

The American President, Donald Trump, who has not hidden his disagreements with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recent days, had just before slammed his fist on the table.

“The final negotiations on ‘peace’ continue, provided that ignorance or stupidity does not come in the way,” he wrote on the Truth Social network.

“The market remains convinced that the president does not really want to continue this war,” John Kilduff of Again Capital told AFP.

“But there are obviously still additional operations continuing […] it’s a constant back and forth,” continues the analyst.

Especially since the Strait of Hormuz – through which around a fifth of the world’s oil usually passes – remains almost entirely blocked by Iran.

Several players in the sector are also warning of the rapid erosion of strategic oil reserves around the world, used since the start of the conflict in the Middle East to reduce the surge in energy prices.

“We are very concerned about reaching a critical threshold in many places,” notes Mr. Kilduff.

In the United States, in a few weeks, the strategic reserve (SPR) has deflated by nearly 60 million barrels, according to figures from the American Energy Information Agency (EIA).

This is the lowest since January 2024, when the country committed to gradually releasing 172 million barrels.