The elections currently taking place in Armenia are without precedent, particularly with regard to external interference. In previous elections, it was generally accepted that whatever the result, it would probably not change Armenia’s geopolitical orientation as an ally of Russia. This time, the main opponents are the outgoing government, which advocates a reduction in dependence on Moscow and the establishment of a new quality of relations with the West, and the opposition, which calls for a return to the alliance with Russia. World leaders have openly taken sides in this election battle: European leaders and the Trump administration have expressed support for outgoing Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, while Moscow has thrown its support behind the opposition leader, Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan.
The upcoming elections can be seen as a vote of confidence in the foreign policy of outgoing Prime Minister Pashinyan, focused on two priorities: “diversification” and the “peace program”. “Diversification” refers to Armenia’s attempt to distance itself from Russia and find new foreign policy partners. In recent years, Armenia has visibly moved away from its long-standing dependence on Russia in the security domain. Thus, Armenia froze its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and practically ceased its arms purchases from Russia, obtaining military equipment from other countries, notably India and France. Russian border guards were asked to leave checkpoints at Yerevan airport and the Armenia-Iran border.
This turnaround can be explained by the collapse of confidence in Moscow as a guarantor of security, due to the passivity it has shown during the successive existential crises that Armenia has faced in recent years (notably the 44-day war in 2020, the clashes on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan in September 2022 and the Azerbaijani offensive of 2023, which led to the exodus of Armenians from Karabakh). Russia’s passivity in the face of these crises has led to a negative shift in public opinion towards it, a shift that is reflected in the current government’s policies. However, this turnaround is not yet complete: the Russian military base remains in Gyumri, and Russian border guards are still stationed along the borders between Armenia and Turkey and between Armenia and Iran (although they are not present at border crossings). The Armenian government has been careful not to completely alienate Russia.
“Diversification” also implies closer ties with Europe. The European Political Community summit held in Yerevan in May, followed by the first European Union (EU)-Armenia summit, marked an important symbolic and political step in these relations. It also allowed the Armenian government to present Armenia as an active player in European diplomacy. This summit also led to a crisis in relations with Russia, notably due to the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the statements he made in Yerevan. At the same time, it is also clear that the goal of joining the European Union (EU), enshrined in legislation passed by the Armenian Parliament a year ago, remains at best a strategic priority, rather than a realistic goal. short term. Armenia remains part of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and relies heavily on Russia as an energy supplier and export market.
However, “diversification” does not only concern Europe. Yerevan has also managed to strengthen its relations with the Trump administration. The United States of America (USA) contributed to the successful conclusion of negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan with the signing of the Washington Accords in August 2025. These agreements also provide for the creation of the “Trump Road for Peace and International Prosperity” (TRIPP), which helped resolve remaining differences between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This is a road which will connect Azerbaijan to its exclave, Nakhichevan, crossing Armenian territory, and which will be managed by a joint American-Armenian company. Armenia received a visit from the US vice president and secretary of state, who promised lucrative contracts in nuclear energy and artificial intelligence technologies. Recently, Donald Trump supported Nikol Pashinyan in a message published on social networks. Armenia is also seeking to reduce its dependence on Russia by expanding its relations with countries in the South. Thus, India has become an important partner in arms supply. Armenia’s neighbors Iran and Georgia remain a priority, and Yerevan is doing its best to ensure that its relations with the EU and the United States do not affect its relations with these countries.
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