War in Ukraine | The advance of the Russian army practically stopped

The pace of Russian advances into Ukrainian territory has fallen spectacularly over the past year and “is approaching zero in net terms”, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which sees this dynamic as an embarrassing disavowal for Moscow.

The research group established in Washington notes, in a new report published at the beginning of the week, that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be able to continue for long to claim that his country is certain to win the war in the absence of significant gains on the ground.

Russian troops advanced 2.9 square kilometers per day during the first four months of 2026, while the average for all of last year was 13.2 square kilometers per day, notes the ISW.

Russia even suffered a decline of 116 square kilometers in April, a “notorious change” going against the trend observed since 2023.

The number of Russian soldiers killed per month has exceeded the number of recruits since the end of 2025, leading, for January 2026 alone, to a net loss of 9,000 fighters.

Sophisticated technologies

Kateryna Stepanenko, who is one of the co-authors of the ISW report, notes in an interview that Ukrainian forces use sophisticated technologies that give them an advantage at present against the Russian adversary.

“Russia can find ways to adapt but they don’t currently have the resources required to achieve the same results as Ukraine,” she said.

The Ukrainian army has notably “considerably intensified” its intermediate-range strikes by using, among other things, innovative drones of American origin with a range of 150 kilometers.

In particular, they made it possible to target highways and railways, far beyond the front line, compromising Russian supply lines.

“The enemy’s rear is no longer a safe zone,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov declared on Wednesday on X, noting that these strikes aimed to deprive the Russian army of the capacity to organize offensive actions.

M^me Stepanenko notes that Ukrainian forces also seek to gain an advantage by more aggressively targeting Russian drone operators as well as anti-aircraft defense systems and attempt to overwhelm the adversary’s capabilities by occasionally concentrating their own drones in areas deemed more fragile.

While the extent of aerial surveillance by this type of aircraft has made it very difficult to move military vehicles across a large swath of territory adjacent to the front line, the Ukrainian army has achieved breakthroughs of several kilometers on a few occasions in recent months.

“This is much more than the 100-meter advances that have become the norm,” notes M^me Stepanenko, who says he is unable to predict whether larger-scale Ukrainian counter-offensives like the one occurring in particular in 2022 in the Kharkiv province are likely to occur.

Tensions in Russia

The changes underway on the ground have not gone unnoticed in Russia, where ultranationalist bloggers are increasing their criticism of the army, notes the researcher.

Tensions are exacerbated by the increase in long-range Ukrainian attacks targeting military and energy infrastructure in Russia itself.

Lawrence Freedman, a military analyst at King’s College London, noted online last week that the “narrative surrounding the war between Ukraine and Russia” has evolved significantly in recent weeks.

The prolongation of the conflict and the resulting economic problems add to the dissatisfaction aroused in the Russian population by recent restrictions on the Internet.

However, these tensions do not seem likely to influence the determination of the Russian president, who remains, according to Mr. Freedman, focused on “maximalist objectives” in relation to Ukraine.

The strikes on Kyiv carried out a few days after the May 9 military parade was held in Moscow, the size of which was reduced for fear of Ukrainian attacks, aimed, according to Mr. Freedman, to rule out any idea of ​​a weakening of the Russian position in the conflict.

Warnings in recent days about the need for foreign diplomatic personnel to leave the Ukrainian capital in anticipation of new Russian strikes are in the same vein, judges M^me Stepanenko.

“Ukraine’s innovations give it the advantage on the ground and the Kremlin is worried. The threats to Kyiv are being launched from a position of weakness,” says the analyst, who also does not expect a major change of direction from the Russian leader at this stage despite the difficulties encountered by his troops.

“Ultimately, for him this war is not a question of territory, it is a question of control. He wants to set up a new government in Kyiv to make Ukraine a puppet state controlled by Russia,” she notes.