Iran considers resumption of war with the United States unlikely

Iran judged on Wednesday that the resumption of hostilities with the United States was unlikely, despite the recent American strikes, against a backdrop of renewed optimism in the markets where oil prices were falling.

At the same time, as one more step towards a return to normal, internet access has been partly restored in Iran, according to the cybersecurity monitoring NGO NetBlocks. And in the sky, traffic has now fully resumed in 10 airports across the country.

If the weapons have almost fallen silent since April 8 after more than a month of Israeli-American strikes which left thousands dead, negotiations have stalled since. And Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, causing black gold prices to soar and the world economy to falter.

– “Strikes tonight?” –

In this tense context, Iranians testify to their dismay.

“I have the impression that nothing is certain yet, even if the ceasefire is still in force and there is talk of a possible agreement. We ask ourselves every day: will there be missile strikes this evening?”, Amir, a 27-year-old software developer in the Iranian capital, told AFP.

The Revolutionary Guards, however, judge the probability of a resumption of the war “low due to the weakness of the enemy”. But “the armed forces are on alert, warned Mohammad Akbarzadeh, a senior official of the naval forces quoted by the Tasnim news agency, vowing to transform the Gulf into “a cemetery for the aggressors”, if necessary.

According to the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence, the United States and Israel failed, with their attack launched on February 28 against Iran, their “objective of overthrowing and dividing the country”, but are now pursuing this goal “by other means”.

The day before, the Islamic Republic had accused Washington of having violated the ceasefire in the south of the country, after the announcement by the American command for the Middle East (Centcom) of strikes during the night from Monday to Tuesday on missile launch sites.

Iran has not officially confirmed the information, but state media reported explosions in the port city of Bandar Abbas.

– Access to assets –

On Wednesday, oil prices plunged, with markets wanting to believe in an agreement. Around 12:35 GMT (2:35 p.m. in Paris), the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, the international benchmark for crude, lost nearly 5% to $94.61.

“There remains an air of cautious optimism regarding the signing and details of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran,” comments Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone.

Because the dialogue is not broken: the Iranian agency Isna reported “generally positive negotiations” after the visit of senior officials to Qatar, a first since the start of hostilities.

The purpose of this trip was to discuss “modalities of access” to funds frozen abroad, including part in Qatar, due to American sanctions. Tehran demands the release of 24 billion in assets, “with half made available upon announcement of the memorandum of understanding”, according to Isna.

This is one of the main points of contention, alongside the nuclear aspect which Iran wishes to address in a second step.

– “Iranian orders” –

The United States is demanding the destruction of its stock of highly enriched uranium, the fate of which has been uncertain since previous strikes, in June 2025. Tehran, for its part, denies wanting to acquire an atomic bomb.

Donald Trump, who is due to meet his government on Wednesday, is seeking a way out of this unpopular war which has seriously disrupted the world economy due to Tehran’s virtual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the crude oil and liquefied natural gas consumed normally transits. in the world.

On Wednesday, the Revolutionary Guards insisted that only ships “ready to comply with Iranian orders” would be allowed to use the strategic sea route, according to state television.

On the Lebanese front of the conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced an intensification of the army’s offensive against pro-Iranian Hezbollah, despite a ceasefire theoretically in force since April 17.