Before the opening: appetite for geopolitical risk after the weekend🟩 (25.05.2026)

🌠GEOPOLITICS – Strait of Hormuz / Iran

• The conflict between the United States and Iran remains the main driver of the markets. On Saturday, Trump announced that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was “largely negotiated” and would be made public shortly. On Sunday, however, he reversed his position, saying there was no emergency and that the naval blockade would remain in place until the agreement was signed and ratified.
• Secretary of State Rubio confirmed that a “substantial proposal” regarding reopening the strait was on the table, emphasizing that the diplomatic route would be explored to the fullest extent possible before considering other options. Concrete proof of a partial reopening: two LNG tankers left the Strait of Hormuz bound for Pakistan and China, and a supertanker carrying Iraqi oil bound for China left the Gulf on Saturday after being stuck there for almost three months.

🦠MACRO / CENTRAL BANKS

• The new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, took office in a context of stagflation – markets fully anticipate a rate hike of 25 basis points in January 2027, which marks a dramatic turnaround compared to forecasts prior to the outbreak of the conflict (two cuts in 2026). fell to historic lows in May amid rising fuel prices.
• Lagarde hinted at a revision of the ECB’s inflation forecasts ahead of the June 11 meeting – the market is watching closely to see whether the ECB will adjust its interest rate path in the face of the energy shock. The NZIER recommends that the RBNZ keep rates at 2.25% this week (May 27), but indicates that increases are likely in the coming quarters.
• The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8318 – a yuan significantly stronger than market estimates (6.7880) – which is seen as a subtle signal of support for the appreciation of the Chinese currency. Singapore beat GDP growth forecasts for the first quarter, and the local central bank, MAS, hinted at a stabilization of its interest rate policy, although the Commerce Ministry warned of Middle East risks.

📈 MARCHÉS – APERÇU

• A sense of appetite for risk dominated the start of the week: futures on the S&P 500 were up +0.7%, those on the Nasdaq were up +1.2%, and gold gained +1.4% in a context of dollar weakness. On Friday, the Dow Jones closed at a record level of 50,579 points (+0.58%), the S&P 500 at 7,473 points (+0.37%) and the Nasdaq at 26,343 points (+0.19%).
• Note on market liquidity – markets are closed today in the United States (Memorial Day), the United Kingdom (Spring Bank Holiday), Hong Kong and South Korea. Some European stock exchanges are also observing Pentecost Monday (Germany, France, Switzerland, Austria), although Euronext and Xetra are open – the Swiss stock exchange will be closed. Low liquidity could significantly amplify any news from Tehran or Washington.

🌠ASIA

• The Nikkei 225 reached a record high, successively crossing the thresholds of 64,000 and 65,000 points – to close at 65,263 points (+3.04%). This is a direct reaction to the fall in oil prices and the progress of negotiations with Iran. The Taiwanese Taiex also reached a historic high above 43,000 points (+2.91%).
• The Australian ASX 200 rose +0.47%, the Chinese CSI 300 +0.91% and the Indian Nifty 50 +1.03%. No major economic releases are planned today from Asia – no significant data is expected.
• The JP225 (CFD) is up 3.24% today at 65,372 – the biggest gain among the major indices. The DE40 is up 1.65% (25,252) and the EU50 is up 1.60% (6,094) – European futures open sharply higher amid appetite for risk.

💱 DEVISES

• The CHF is by far the strongest currency today (Currency Strength Meter), with the GBP and AUD taking second and third place respectively. At the other end of the scale, the JPY, USD and NZD are the weakest – a clear shift from safe haven currencies to riskier ones.
• EUR/USD rose +0.11% to 1.1643, GBP/USD +0.26% to 1.3486. USD/JPY is virtually unchanged at 158.86. The EUR/PLN is stable at 4.2343, while the USD/PLN falls slightly (-0.12%) to 3.6367 – the zloty appreciates slightly thanks to the weakness of the dollar.
• The NOK and CHF are strengthening significantly against other currencies, while the JPY and TRY are under pressure. The USDIDX (dollar index) fell 0.30% to 98.93.

ðŸ›¢ï¸ MATIÉRES PREMIÉRES

• Oil is the big loser of the session: the OIL (CFD on Brent) fell 5.35% to $94.52/barrel, while the OIL.WTI fell 5.75% to $90.65/barrel – its lowest level in two weeks. This drop is a direct reaction to the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran and signs that the Strait of Hormuz is being physically unblocked.
• Gold (GOLD CFD) is up +1.21% at $4,562/ounce – paradoxically, it is supported by a weaker dollar rather than the usual safe-haven demand. Silver (SILVER CFD) is up more strongly, up +2.91% at $77.70/ounce. Natural gas (NATGAS) is down -0.86% at $2.99.
• Oil prices remain above pre-war levels (up 30% since February 28), and analysts warn that even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it will take months for the energy supply chain to return to normal. normal – inflationary pressure will not disappear quickly.

has, CRYPTOCURRENCIES

• Bitcoin (CFD) is up +1.68% at $77,215 – it is moving in line with the general risk-taking sentiment, benefiting from a weaker dollar and renewed confidence in the markets. The rise is moderate compared to the performance of Asian stocks.

🔑 WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Every headline regarding the US-Iran negotiations is crucial – the market oscillates between euphoria and disappointment. Given the low liquidity (the US, UK and part of the European markets are closed), every tweet or post from Trump or Rubio could trigger sharp fluctuations in oil, dollar and index futures A normal trading session with full liquidity will not resume until Tuesday.

Volatility observed on the main instruments. Source: xStation