In Switzerland, the tourism sector is expected to suffer the consequences of global geopolitical turbulence. Economists expect a drop in overnight stays during the summer season, a first since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic.
During the summer season, a 1% drop in hotel nights is expected, to 24.9 million, project economists from BAK Economics, who provide these forecasts on behalf of the State Secretariat for the Economy (Seco). The expected decline can be attributed to lower customer demand from distant markets, for which a 3.7% drop in overnight stays is feared.
The war in Iran has disrupted air traffic, which explains the reluctance of international travelers. Initially, it was mainly airspace closures that slowed demand. “These particularly affected major airports in the Middle East such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha,” explained Simon Flury, Tourism project manager at BAK Economics.
Added to this is the rise in kerosene prices, which generally makes long-haul travel more expensive.
Fewer Asian visitors
Asia is the most affected area, particularly India and Southeast Asian countries, as airports in the Middle East are usually hubs for air traffic to Europe. Additionally, many of these countries depend on Gulf countries for their energy supplies. “In March, we already saw significant losses, with India falling by more than 30%,” said Simon Flury. On the other hand, China should resist better, thanks to direct air links to Switzerland.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the United States should record slight growth, although slowing down its rate of progress after playing a driving role in recent years. Indeed, the rise in flight prices and the troubled consumer climate are weighing on demand.
“The 1% is just the tip of the iceberg”
Invited Friday on the Forum show, Xavier Rey, president of Geneva hoteliers, confirms having noted that reservations from countries in the Middle East and Asia had already decreased significantly. According to him, this loss is difficult to make up for, even if the search for customers in other markets continues.
“We have to understand that the 1% mentioned is a bit of the tip of the iceberg. Because we have to say that we are going to lose guests who come from countries with a high added value on spending in restaurants, or even in shops… We manage to find other nights, indeed, but with customers who will spend a little less money”, he explains.
>> Listen to the interview with Xavier Rey in Forum:
Domestic demand supports the sector
Domestic demand and that of certain European markets, for example, will play a stabilizing role: in a troubled world, closer destinations benefit from a renewed interest. An increase in overnight stays by indigenous guests is therefore expected, of 0.5% over one year. Private consumption nevertheless risks being slowed down by higher inflation.
“We must also recognize that each canceled trip to Dubai or Thailand will not be replaced by a week in the Swiss mountains,” laments Simon Flury.
Overall, overnight stays from European guests are expected to be down 1.0%, mainly due to a high basis of comparison, the summer of 2025 having been rich in events, particularly with the women’s Euro football. A drop is particularly expected for hosts from the United Kingdom.
ats/ther
