President Donald Trump has always presented himself as an outstanding negotiator, but he appears to be at an impasse with Iran as his aggressive rhetoric, threats and even military action have failed to change Tehran’s long-standing position, according to l AP.
Despite constantly shifting goals, President Trump and his top advisers have maintained that the United States has won the war and that Iran is ready to make a deal, following escalating threats amid a fragile ceasefire.
The top priority of the United States has not been achieved.
On May 18, President Trump announced that he had temporarily suspended plans to resume a planned attack on Iran at the request of the Gulf countries because “serious negotiations are currently underway.”
Despite calling off planned airstrikes on May 19, Trump maintained a hardline stance, saying he had ordered military leaders to be “prepared to launch a full-scale attack on Iran at any time if no acceptable agreement is reached.” President Trump has repeatedly issued and withdrawn ultimatums against Tehran.
Despite domestic instability, a blighted economy and the death of numerous leaders, there is no reason to believe that Iran will accede to President Trump’s demands.
In reality, Iran has been even more inflexible. As a result, Trump’s main objectives remain out of reach: Iran has not agreed to abandon its nuclear program, its development of ballistic missiles, nor to end its support for auxiliary forces in the region, notably in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.
The White House defended the president’s approach on May 18, saying that “Trump’s priority has always been peace and diplomacy” but that he would only accept a deal that puts U.S. interests first.
“President Trump has all the assets in hand and is keeping all conditions on the negotiating table to ensure that Iran never possesses nuclear weapons,†spokesperson Olivia Wales said in a statement sent to the Associated Press.
Iran maintains the advantage in the Strait of Hormuz.
Crucially, Iran has retained control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global sea route for the transport of oil, despite the blockade imposed by the American army on its ports. The ensuing turmoil in global energy markets led to a surge in gasoline prices, hurting U.S. consumers and posing a potential risk to the U.S. Republican Party in the run-up to the November midterm elections.
Trump’s strategy of increasing pressure – economic and military – to force foreign governments to make concessions has not been as effective in Iran as in Venezuela and elsewhere, according to l AP . The United States does not have leverage as powerful as Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The war in Iran has raised the cost of living for Americans, led to a decline in Trump’s approval rating on economic issues, and even within the Republican Party, confidence in his leadership has declined, according to an AP-NORC poll conducted last month.
Neither team conceded defeat.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, noted that neither the United States nor Iran see themselves as the losers in this latest conflict.
“Since the ceasefire came into force, Washington and Tehran both seem to believe that time is on their side: each side believes that a blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz will increase costs for the other side, while creating the conditions for a possible resumption of the conflict,” Vaez observed.
Despite the impact of the US economic pressure campaign, Iran has not been weakened enough to accept demands that it considers “surrender,” Vaez said.
David Schenker, former deputy secretary of state for the Middle East during President Trump’s first term, who now works at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, describes the current situation as a “stalemate.”
He suggested that President Trump may be “hesitant” to resume full-scale military conflict, particularly because of Gulf Arab states’ concerns about possible Iranian retaliation and volatility. energy markets, which would have political repercussions in the United States.
Meanwhile, Rich Goldberg, a hard-liner on Iran who served on the US National Security Council under both Trump presidencies and now works at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says the US remains in a position of strength, notably thanks to an advantage in the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldberg, particularly concerned about the US energy situation, argues that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would help alleviate the “gas station anxiety” many Americans feel, but that it is not vital.
“The passing worries at gas stations make people forget the global energy supremacy of the United States. This is not a long-term crisis,” Goldberg said.
>>> Readers are invited to view other videos on the Strait of Hormuz.
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