War in Ukraine, Middle East, Chinese imports… For Vladimir Putin, a visit to Beijing fraught with challenges

• Following in the footsteps of Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin is traveling to China this Tuesday for a two-day visit to his “good friend” Xi Jinping.
• The opportunity to “strengthen” the bilateral strategic partnership between the two allied capitals, according to the Russian presidency, which praises an unprecedented proximity.
• However, several thorny issues should be discussed, such as the continuation of the war in Ukraine and Chinese energy supplies.

Almost a week after the sumptuous welcome of American President Donald Trump (nouvelle fenêtre)Vladimir Putin hopes to show the strength of his ties with China. The Russian president arrives this Tuesday, May 19 afternoon in China (nouvelle fenêtre)to meet his “long time good friend”his counterpart Xi Jinping. In recent days, he even assured that relations between the two countries had reached “a truly unprecedented level”. Strong support for a Russia that has otherwise been marginalized on the world stage since the start of its invasion of Ukraine.

The two leaders, aged 73 and 72 respectively, will discuss ways to “to strenghten” the bilateral strategic partnership and “exchange their opinions on major international and regional issues”according to the Russian presidency. They will therefore have to sign a joint declaration at the end of their meeting. A moment already prepared by the exchange of “congratulatory letters” warm exchanges between the two heads of state on Sunday, on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the bilateral strategic partnership between the two capitals, in which Xi Jinping welcomed a cooperation which has “continuously deepened” (nouvelle fenêtre).

Exchanges in the shadow of Donald Trump?

If Donald Trump was welcomed with great fanfare last week, for the first visit by an American president to China in nine years, the meeting should this time take place in a less sumptuous setting. The last visit of the Russian leader dates back only to September 2025 (nouvelle fenêtre)and this new meeting also marks his 25th visit to China. But on the contrary it should be an opportunity for the two men to display a united front and even their interpersonal closeness, Xi Jinping having even described his counterpart as a “old friend”receiving it last fall.

Even if the tone of the meeting should therefore be very different from that of last week, it is quite possible that Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing will be at the heart of the discussions.. “There is no link between the (two) visits”assured Vladimir Putin’s diplomatic advisor, Yuri Ushakov. But for certain specialists, the Kremlin hopes to obtain information on the American position on the Russian invasion in Ukraine, mentioned during the Republican leader’s visit. (nouvelle fenêtre). The Chinese president “will most certainly share with Vladimir Putin what was said”estimated Patricia Kim, researcher at the Brookings Institution, to AFP.

A rare occurrence for Beijing, which has never condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has always stuck to one position “neutral”the Chinese leader would have slipped a barely veiled criticism during these exchanges: he would have declared to his American counterpart that Vladimir Putin could “regret” his offensive, according to the Financial Times (nouvelle fenêtre). But officially, no strong statement has been made by the two leaders on the subject, which “probably reassures Moscow that Xi Jinping has not concluded any agreement with Donald Trump that could concretely harm Russian interests”ajouté la spécialiste auprès de l’AFP.

The energy question, a crucial issue for Moscow

The other challenge for Moscow is also to ensure Chinese economic support, which has become essential for it (nouvelle fenêtre) in recent years, as Western sanctions piled up. With a crucial question, that of energy: since 2022, Russian oil exports to China have increased by around 30%, and Beijing today represents the leading buyer of Russian fossil fuels. (nouvelle fenêtre) in the world. An essential financial windfall for Russia’s war machine, which is also beginning three days of nuclear exercises at the start of the week (nouvelle fenêtre). 

In this context, the two countries are also in talks for the construction of a gigantic gas pipeline project, “Siberian Force 2”, on which a memorandum “legally binding” was signed in September 2025. According to the Russian gas giant Gazprom, it should make it possible to “transport 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Russia via Mongolia”. However, no definitive agreement has seen the light of day for the moment, but the context of the war in the Middle East (nouvelle fenêtre) could accelerate these negotiations which have dragged on for years, according to some analysts.

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“A balancing act”: how Vladimir Putin seeks to get out of the Iran war

More than half of Chinese imports of crude oil transported by sea came from this region last year, and mainly transited through the Strait of Hormuz (nouvelle fenêtre)today almost paralyzed, according to the analysis company Kpler. Visiting Beijing in mid-April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also proposed “compensate” this deficit thanks to Russian energy resources. The stagnation of peace talks between Iran and the United States could therefore allow Russia to advance its pawns, but its views must really converge with its Chinese partner.

For Beijing, which pleads for a ceasefire in the region and the reopening of Hormuz “as soon as possible”increasing its imports would present the risk of reinforcing its dependence on Moscow. For its part, the Kremlin is conversely benefiting from the rise in oil prices fueled by the conflict, not to mention the suspension of American sanctions on Russian oil stored at sea. “A financial windfall, but temporary”specialist Carole Grimaud recently expressed nuance to TF1info. Russia could still be tempted to extend it as long as possible, going against the interests of its ally.