Home War War in Iran and Lebanon: one-upmanship between Trump and Tehran, towards an...

War in Iran and Lebanon: one-upmanship between Trump and Tehran, towards an insoluble conflict?

7
0

War in Iran and Lebanon: one-upmanship between Trump and Tehran, towards an insoluble conflict?

While Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran last night, Tehran is posing serious threats to the Strait of Hormuz. Between the two parties, negotiations are at a standstill.

The essentials

  • The war in IranThis Monday, May 18, is experiencing its 80th day of clashes. As a tenuous ceasefire continues,Donald Trump warned on his Truth Social platform that “there will be nothing left of Iran” if Tehran does not sign an agreement with the United States. Hopes for negotiations between the two countries seem distant. “For Iran, time is running out, and (the Iranians) had better act quickly, otherwise there will be nothing left of them,” the American president threatened this Sunday.This Monday, the G7 finance ministers opened their two-day meeting in Paris on Monday, where they will try to reconcile their positions on the responses to be made to the repercussions of the conflict in the Middle East.
  • Les négociations skate between Washington and Tehran.According to the Iranian agency Fars, Washington presented a list of five points demanding in particular that Iran maintain only one nuclear site in operation and transfer its stock of highly enriched uranium to the United States. According toThis same source, the United States also refused to release “even 25%” of Iranian assets frozen abroad or to pay reparations for damages suffered by Iran during the war.Iran says it has responded to the latest American proposal: “Our concerns have been transmitted to the American side,” declared the ministry’s spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, during a press briefing, adding that exchanges were continuing with the United States “via the Pakistani mediator”.
  • The Strait of Hormuz, maritime axis through which 20% of the world’s crude oil transits,is still largely blocked by Iran. Tehran, which is still considering the establishment of a toll for boats, is now seeking to increase pressure on the United States via this stretch of sea and has made three shock announcements. Tehran is considering boardingtax the submarine internet cables present in the Strait of Hormuz. More worrying, Iran is also threatening sabotage of these submarine cables according to certain media close to the Revolutionary Guards. Finally, the Iranian Supreme National Security Council officially announced the creation of an organization responsible for managing the Strait of Hormuz, according to AFP: the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA).
  • In Lebanonan extension of the ceasefire with Israel for a period of 45 days was recorded at the end of a second day of Lebanese-Israeli talks in Washington. At the same time,Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed seven people on Sunday, including a leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.According to a preliminary assessment from the Ministry of Health, three people died in Tayr Felsay and two in Tayr Debba, including a child in each locality.

And directly

<!– AMP-LIVE-REMOVE-ME –>

15:58 – “No calm in Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remains there,” says the UN

The Israeli ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, declared that “there will be no calm in Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remains there” during an interview on the Israeli channel Channel 14comments reported by The Orient-The Day. “Today, we have a significant presence on the ground, we are acting in the area,” he assures. “We cannot trust anyone except the Israeli army (…) Neither UNIFIL, nor the international forces, nor the European forces, nor the Lebanese government are capable (of disarming Hezbollah, editor’s note)”, he concludes.

15:10 – UN demands Israel commit “genocide” in Gaza

The UN demands that Israel prevent “genocide” in Gaza, in a report from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. According to this report, the actions carried out by Israel in Gaza since the start of the war on October 7, 2023 constitute “flagrant violations” of international law and sometimes amount to “war crimes and other atrocities.” In the report’s conclusion, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk called on Israel to ensure compliance with a 2024 order from the International Court of Justice requiring it to take measures to prevent acts of genocide in Gaza. According to him, Israel must ensure “with immediate effect that its army does not engage in acts of genocide, (and take) all necessary measures to prevent and punish incitement to genocide.” The document also condemns “serious violations” committed by Palestinian armed groups during and after the initial attack. The Hamas attack caused the deaths of 1,221 people on the Israeli side, most of them civilians, according to an AFP count based on official data.

14:47 – Tehran says it has struck groups linked to the United States and Israel

Iran struck groups “acting on behalf of the United States and Israel” in the west of the country, near the Iraqi border, said the Revolutionary Guards, cited by the ISNA news agency. These groups, “based in northern Iraq”, were struck “in the town of Baneh, in the province of Kurdistan” while they “attempted to introduce into the country a large shipment of American arms and ammunition”, added the ideological army.

14:25 – The Lebanese president will do the “impossible” to stop the war

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun promised this Monday, May 18, to do everything to put an end to the conflict. “It is my duty and my responsibility to do the impossible (…) to stop the war against Lebanon and its people,” he declared according to a press release from the presidency, recalling that the negotiations with Israel aimed in particular at the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the return of the displaced.

12:38 – “A series of plans for military targets”, the Pentagon and Trump ready for combat

In recent days, Donald Trump has “more seriously” considered resuming intense combat operations in Iran as a way to force a compromise to end the war, CNN says. In this sense, he should meet his national security team again at the start of the week. The Pentagon has even prepared “a series of plans for military targets” if the president decides to be more offensive with strikes, including targeted strikes on energy sites in Iran.

11:37 – Iran announces the creation of a body responsible for managing the Strait of Hormuz

The Iranian Supreme National Security Council officially announces the creation of an organization responsible for managing the Strait of Hormuz. Information relayed by Agence France-Presse (AFP). The Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) now has its official account, where it will provide “real-time updates on operations” in the strait.

10:44 – Iran claims to have responded to the latest US proposal

Iran says it responded to the latest American proposal this Monday, May 18: “Our concerns have been transmitted to the American side,” declared the spokesperson for the ministry, Esmaeil Baghaei, during a press point, adding that the exchanges were continued with the United States “via the Pakistani mediator”.

10:31 – Hope in the negotiations, according to an Iranian spokesperson

Despite a bogged down situation and negotiations that appear to be at a standstill between the United States and Iran at the start of the week, the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirmed that Iran is currently focused on ending the war, Iranian state media reported quoted by the American press agency Reuters. Iran reports continuing trade with the United States this Monday, May 18, but no additional details are provided at this stage.

09:56 – In Lebanon, an Islamic Jihad leader killed in an Israeli strike

An Israeli missile attack targeting an apartment in eastern Lebanon killed an Islamic Jihad leader, Wael Abdel Halim, as well as his 17-year-old daughter, the official Lebanese news agency, NNA, announced on Sunday evening. According to the Ministry of Health, three people also died in Tayr Felsay and Tayr Debba, including a child in each of these localities in the south of the country, and around fifteen people were injured. The Israeli army had called for the evacuation of several villages which had already been the subject of warnings the day before.

09:44 – G7 Finance Ministers meeting in Paris this Monday

The meeting of G7 Finance Ministers begins this Monday morning in Bercy, “with the arrival of the first delegations at the ministry”, indicates BFMTV. The repercussions of the war in the Middle East on their countries will be discussed as well as potential responses to the conflict. “I think that today we are going to show that multilateralism is useful and that it works,” the Minister of Economy and Finance, Roland Lescure, declared to journalists on Monday morning. “We are facing major challenges: the war in the Middle East, obviously; multilateral imbalances, which are unsustainable today; the issues of rare earths, critical materials; issues of development aid”, listed Roland Lescure. His American, Canadian, German, English, Italian and Japanese counterparts will be there, as will the G7 central bank governors.

09:34 – Iran’s two shock threats to the Strait of Hormuz

Iran wants to tax underwater internet cables present in the Strait of Hormuz to put pressure on the world. Indeed, the Iranian parliament discussed a bill which would require foreign operators to pay a right of passage, a sort of toll, like for boats, reveals Franceinfo. Tehran assures that this tax complies with the law of the sea. At the same time, Iran is also considering sabotaging some of these cables. Media close to the Revolutionary Guards recall that if these cables were to be damaged the consequences would be considerable. Disorganization of military communications between allies, slowdown of flow… The effects could be enormous.

<!– AMP-LIVE-REMOVE-ME –>

Learn more

The start of the war in Iran, launched by the United States and Israel

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a joint military strike operation on Iran. On the Israeli side, the operation is called “Roaring Lion”, on the American side “Epic Fury”. The objectives range from the overthrow of the regime to the weakening of the Iranian nuclear program, including the destruction of the military capabilities of the Islamic Republic, judged as a threat, in particular by Israel.

In addition to targeting the Iranian arsenal, the Israeli-American coalition will lead a campaign to eliminate Iranian leaders. A significant number of political figures from the regime were killed in the first hours of the conflict, including the supreme guide Ali Khamenei. His son Mojtaba Khamenei, who took over on March 8, 2026, was also targeted and his state of health will quickly become the subject of speculation.

Iran’s response and the contagion in Lebanon and the Middle East

From February 28, 2026, Iran responded to strikes by the United States and Israel, by launching hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles towards Israel and towards American military bases in the Gulf, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

On the night of March 1 to 2, in response to the death of Ali Khamenei, Hezbollah, an ally of Iran, launched salvos of rockets and drones from Lebanon towards northern Israel. The Israeli army called this offensive an “official declaration of war” and launched a vast bombing campaign in Lebanon.

On March 2, 2026, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, instantly blocking numerous cargo and oil ships, and suspending a significant portion of global oil traffic. The International Energy Agency called the shutdown “the largest supply disruption in history.”