For several months, the Middle East has entered a phase of major strategic restructuring. The Israeli-American offensive against Iran has profoundly upset regional balances: tensions in the Gulf, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cross strikes, fragility of ceasefires and return of a logic of direct confrontation between regional powers.
Behind this highly publicized war, another crisis, less visible in Europe, is rapidly worsening: that between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban. The situation would be close to an “open war”, an open war, between Islamabad and Kabul. Border clashes are increasing, as are air strikes, while Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of sheltering fighters from the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, the TTP, responsible for deadly attacks on Pakistani territory. At the same time, an apparent paradox, Islamabad is trying to present itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran. Discreetly supported bySaudi Arabiaclose to United States but obliged to spare neighboring Iran, Pakistan seeks to transform an extreme internal vulnerability into a diplomatic opportunity, under the watchful eye of New Delhi which, for its part, is developing growing ties with Kabul, in a logic of regional encirclement of its rival history Behind the crises in the Middle East is a new battle for South Asian influence, between. IndePakistan, Afghanistan, IranChina and the Gulf monarchies. Are we witnessing a regionalization of the Middle Eastern conflict all the way to the gates of South Asia? Is the risk of a widespread regional conflagration underestimated today?
Invited :
- Olivier Weberwriter and major reporter. Angels and Ogres which has just been published by Calmann-Lévy
- Jean-Luc Racineemeritus research director at CNRS, senior researcher at the Asia Center think tank
