According to the latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice production for the 2026-2027 crop year is expected to reach approximately 538 million tonnes. This is the first decline since 2015, ending eleven years of continuous growth. This development risks leading to a shortage of this basic food.
Two factors influence the global supply of rice.
The decline in production is mainly concentrated in major producing countries such as India, Myanmar and the United States, with expected declines of up to 15% compared to the previous year. According to an analysis by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), three main factors explain this situation: soaring input costs, unfavorable weather conditions and geopolitical tensions disrupting trade flows.
- Coûts de production : Soaring fertilizer and energy prices, driven in part by conflicts in the Middle East, have led farmers in many Asian countries to consider abandoning their crops due to low profits.
- Météo El Niño: Meteorologists are forecasting below-average rainfall in India – a major rice-exporting country – due to the El Niño phenomenon, increasing the risk of drought in major rice-growing regions from June.
International rice prices fluctuate widely.
Forecasts of tighter supply immediately impacted financial and trade markets. According to Bloomberg data, wholesale prices of Thai white rice – a benchmark in the Asian market – have increased by around 15% since the end of March 2026. On the Chicago Stock Exchange, rice futures prices also recorded an 8% increase during the week. latest, their strongest growth in two years.
| Market index | Volatility level | Back plan |
|---|---|---|
| thai white rice | +15% | From the end of March 2026 |
| Rice Futures (Chicago) | +8% | Strongest weekly increase in 2 years |
| FAO Rice Price Index | Increase | Pressures linked to energy costs |
Défis liés à la sécurité alimentaire et à l’inflation
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) points out that rice provides approximately 20% of the world’s nutritional energy. A drop in production, while consumption and trade remain at record levels, will deplete global reserves.
In developing countries, particularly in Asia, rice represents a significant part of household expenditure. Rising rice prices not only threaten food security, but also exacerbate inflation. Economists warn that price shocks could lead to drastic policy interventions, such as export bans or price controls, which would increase the volatility of global commodity markets.
Source : https://baonghean.vn/san-luong-gao-toan-cau-du-bao-giam-xuong-538-trieu-tan-de-doa-an-ninh-luong-thuc-10336884.html
