“Today’s data is uncertainty.” In one sentence, Denis Lauretou, regional director of the Banque de France, summarizes – during the 8th edition of the Point conjoncture, held in the La Marseillaise tower – an economic climate suspended by international tensions.
Behind the numbers, a reality is gradually emerging. The crisis in the Middle East is not staying distant, it is already spreading into the real economy, through energy prices, raw materials, and everyday goods.
Denis Lauretou warns of the effects of the energy shock. “We are already seeing impacts on prices, services, and consumer goods. The question is whether an inflationary spiral will occur.” Projections suggest limited GDP growth of 0.9% and inflation around 1.7% in an intermediate scenario. “The context remains uncertain and heavily depends on geopolitical developments.”
However, some indicators persist. Business financing continues to grow, with interest rates stabilizing around 3.5%. “Investment holds, unlike cash flow, which is declining rapidly,” he points out. A sign of…
