Blocked Strait of Hormuz: Two scenarios for agriculture

In a note published on April 20, the Agriculture Strategies think tank decrypts the agricultural and food consequences of the war in the Middle East. Jérémie Denieulle, an expert in geopolitics, and Sandrine Doppler, an analyst and foresight specialist in food systems, develop two major trajectories – controlled conflict or military escalation – to identify “the economic tipping points of tomorrow.”

Before the conflict, 35% of urea exports, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer on the planet, passed through the Strait of Hormuz. However, 40% of the world’s caloric intake relies on major staple crops (wheat, rice, maize), which alone consume 45% of the nitrogen used in the world. A partial blockade of Hormuz, “thus constitutes a direct threat to agricultural yields and the food balance of the most fragile countries.”

The shock differs from that caused by the war in Ukraine, explain the authors: in 2022, Ukraine and Russia were two of the largest global exporters of cereals and the impact was immediately felt on wheat and maize prices.

Here, it is not the food supply that is directly affected, but rather the supply of energy and fertilizers. The effects on food prices are therefore different, linked to crop cycles: “for a farmer in the Ganges plain or the Nile Delta, a fertilization impasse in the spring would mean a compromised harvest, weakened food security and potential sociopolitical unrest, in cities as well as in the countryside.”

Three weeks after the ceasefire concluded at the end of 40 days of fighting, the diplomatic situation remains deadlocked on April 28. Irano-American negotiations failed again over the weekend despite an Iranian peace proposal rejected by Trump. The Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed. Washington says it continues to “examine” Iranian proposals to unlock the situation. The Iranian foreign minister visited St. Petersburg on Monday to seek Putin’s support, while clashes continue between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah.

Context:

• The article discusses the implications of the war in the Middle East on agriculture and food security.
• It highlights the importance of the Strait of Hormuz in global trade and its impact on essential crops and resources.

Fact Check:

• The content reflects a detailed analysis of the potential consequences of the conflict and offers insights into different scenarios that could unfold in the region.