Between the United States and Iran, the risks of a strategy of neither war nor peace

DÉCRYPTAGE – After the ceasefire extension, each belligerent believes they are in a position of strength, plunging the world into a heavy uncertainty facing the threat of a new escalation.

Resumption of war or a pause in negotiations? By entering the Iranian-American conflict into a phase of “neither war, nor peace,” the extension of the ceasefire for an “indefinite” period, announced on Tuesday evening by Donald Trump, plunges the world into a heavy uncertainty. Tehran and Washington continue to see themselves as in a position of strength, with the United States retaining their military freedom of action and Iran showing its determination to control the Strait of Hormuz.

A few hours after Donald Trump’s announcement, the naval force of the Revolutionary Guards announced that they had intercepted two ships trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz, now subject to a double blockade, American and Iranian. They were directed to Iranian territorial waters. Tehran emphasized that ships must obtain permission to leave or enter this waterway, which during peacetime sees a fifth of global exports pass through.