What if China was the winner of the war in Iran?

And if China was the big winner of the war in Iran? It may seem counterintuitive, as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the American fleet threatens to deprive China of part of its oil supply, and that Beijing maintains close relations with the threatened Iranian regime.

But China has several cards in hand. First gain, the image. Xi Jinping has no trouble presenting himself as a model of serenity and visibility when Donald Trump is hysterical, insults his allies, contradicts himself from one day to the next. For insecure countries in the Global South, it matters.

The Chinese number one even dares to give lessons on respect for international law to Donald Trump, who declared that he does not care. In the four-point plan presented by Xi Jinping for Iran, one of them is respect for international law, a paradox for a country accused of flouting it in the South China Sea.

Since the start of the war, Beijing has been discreet, but not inactive. Firstly on the diplomatic front: Trump himself acknowledged that China had played a role in convincing Iran to accept the ceasefire.

In recent days, visitors have flocked to Beijing, from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov promising to increase hydrocarbon deliveries to China, to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, a regular visitor to Beijing.

But it is especially the visit of the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi that catches the attention: it is very significant as the son of the president of the United Arab Emirates, targeted by Iranian missile attacks, comes to China reputed to be close to Tehran. Xi Jinping received him with all honors; and even if the peace plan he outlined is too vague to be operational, it shows that China is talking to everyone for the reduction of tensions.

Third card: Beijing has so far managed to avoid friction with the United States, despite warnings. This is important for China, because in less than a month, on May 14 and 15, Beijing hosts Donald Trump for a Summit whose importance must not be underestimated. It is about negotiating the terms of Sino-American relations for the coming years, commercially and strategically. In terms of the relationship between the two superpowers of the 21st century, this is crucial.

This summit has already been delayed by two months due to the war in Iran, and could be impacted by numerous factors: for example, if a Chinese tanker were intercepted by the American navy in the Strait of Hormuz, or by reports of Chinese military assistance to Iran.

Yesterday, the Financial Times revealed that Iran had purchased a Chinese spy satellite that allowed it to target American military bases in Gulf Arab countries. But Donald Trump sought to appease, tweeting that Beijing had agreed not to deliver weapons to Iran, adding that President Xi would give him a “big hug” soon in Beijing.

For all these reasons, China has plenty of assets to weather the current storm, and emerge stronger in its construction of an image of responsible power. Xi Jinping can thank Donald Trump for the gift.