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The IEA’s Oil Market Report (OMR) indicates that global oil demand is expected to decline by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year in 2026.
This forecast, adds the IEA, represents a downward revision of 700 mb/d compared to our May report, deliveries for the 2nd quarter of 2026 having fallen by 5 mb/d year-on-year, in a context of rising fuel prices and disruptions in the availability of petroleum products.
“We anticipate a rebound in growth to 2 mb/d in 2027, driven by the normalization of trade flows, the fall in oil prices and the improvement in the economic outlook,†underlines the IEA.
Global supply is expected to decline by 3.9 mb/d to 102.4 mb/d in 2026, before rebounding by 8 mb/d to 110.3 mb/d in 2027. In May, production fell to 94.5 mb/d, a drop of 600 mb/d month-on-month and level lower by 13.6 mb/d than before the conflict.
The IEA indicated that while the interim agreement between the United States and Iran paves the way for a resumption of exports from the Middle East, operational and political constraints, notably the extension of mine clearance operations and the absence of regulation of transit arrangements, pose downside risks to the outlook.
Crude volumes processed by refineries are expected to contract by 2 mb/d in 2026, to reach 82 mb/d, driven by a decline of 4.7 mb/d year-on-year in the 2nd quarter of 2026.
The decline in observed global stocks accelerated in May, reaching 143 mb (-4.6 mb/d), compared to 74 mb (-2.5 mb/d) in April. This development brings the average rate of withdrawals from stocks since the start of the Gulf conflict to 3.8 mb/d, including 2.4 mb/d for crude oil and 1.4 mb/d for oil products.
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