The G7 summit organized in Evian from June 15 to 17 is the last in which Emmanuel Macron participated as president, and should also be the last before the presidential election of 2027. Despite an international context marked by the conflict in the Middle East, according to historian Thomas Gomart, author of Who controls who? The new global balance of powerthe upcoming campaign should further keep international issues at bay. The director of the French Institute of International Relations nevertheless underlines the attention generated by the vote abroad.
Should we expect international issues to be at the heart of debates in the upcoming presidential campaign?
At a time when the external context increasingly conditions domestic policy options, particularly given the disappearance of budgetary room for maneuver, they should. But it is anything but certain. We need candidates who take these questions very seriously, working on them, including in their strategic dimension of war and peace. In a different way, the two main political forces of the moment, LFI and the RN, tend to present the country as an isolate, to believe that purchasing power and the maintenance of our social system, the two priorities of the French, can do without a reflection on the world economy. claim to be able to change the outside world thanks to their political voluntarism. Furthermore, all political forces struggle to recognize the provincialization of France and Europe on a global scale and readily refer to Gaullian slogans to avoid rethinking. cause These questions require expertise, a lot of preparation and diverse contacts: once elected, the president devotes, in principle, the majority of his time to them.
Unlike potential candidates like Raphaël Glucksmann or Dominique de Villepin, who choose very geopolitical campaigns. In the current global context, can they do well?
We are accustomed to saying that we cannot win an election in France on international issues and I think that this observation will be the same in 2027. A foreign policy begins at home and claiming to have an external action, this passes above all through the economic, social and psychological state of the country. De Gaulle’s “grand policy” was made possible by a plan to consolidate public finances. Often, geopolitical candidates produce speeches perceived as elitist, grandiloquent and disconnected. However, there is a strong demand, at all levels of society, for forecasting and stability.
Could the controversial international positions of certain candidates become handicaps in this campaign?
In 2022, the Ukrainian war caught the RN, who advocated an alliance with Russia, and Eric Zemmour, who claimed to be a realist, on the wrong foot. Through his anti-Americanism, Jean-Luc Mélenchon took up part of the Russian argument. In 2027, reading the trajectories of Russia, Israel and especially the United States should give rise to deep divisions. On the far right, will we see a clarification on the record of Trumpism, including the question of supremacism? She reassures herself by saying that Islamism is a greater threat than Russia. On the LFI side, will we see the Chinese Communist Party and the global south being highlighted, notably with the question of “the new France”? She takes intellectual pleasure in decolonial discourse. In both cases, hats off to Germany! In the way of campaigning, we must expect the multiplication of “little Trumps”, that is to say candidates who will adopt a posture of systematic media provocation.
The municipal elections were disrupted by attempts at interference, the presidential election should not escape…
We must expect a convergence of Russian and Maga interference [la mouvance trumpiste, ndlr] which come together in their hatred of Europe and in a civilizational discourse according to which the fundamental problem of Europeans is migrants and minorities. This will play a role in 2017 and 2022. The phenomenon will also be multiplied by artificial intelligence. We must expect provoked, accentuated situations to maintain a sort of confusion about the ins and outs of this election. What authoritarian and illiberal regimes seek is to discredit the democratic debate and to contest the conduct of the ballot to maintain an illegitimacy trial.
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