Does Donald Trump still rule the roost in the United States? Despite the attacks on his mental health and his fall in the polls, the Republican primaries in view of the midterms confirm that the president is increasing his hold on the party and imposing his diplomacy of loyalty. And like an emperor, Donald Trump wants his symbols, whether it be a ticket bearing his image, a monumental triumphal arch or an MMA arena at the White House. In short, he wants to make history with his name.
In Ukraine, drones have changed everything. Ukrainian innovation led to the creation of a new military doctrine and completely redistributed the cards on the battlefield. The Ukrainian army is ramping up: saturating the Russian defenses, hitting the garrisons, bringing the war into the daily lives of Russians. On the other side of the border, there is another weapon that freezes minds: the Orechnik. A hypersonic Russian missile, at more than ten times the speed of sound, almost impossible to intercept, capable of carrying conventional or nuclear warheads. After 24 deaths in kyiv including three children, its use is as much a signal as a weapon. Vladimir Putin is intensifying his strikes, so is he losing his nerve? Because he is now very far from his initial ambitions of “total victory”. Find Annalisa Cappellini and Mathieu Jolivet in “L’ordre du monde” every Thursday on the BFM Business Youtube channel, on our site and in podcast on all listening platforms.
After almost three months of conflict, Iran has not said its last word. In a war that pits it against two much more powerful enemies from a military point of view, the Tehran regime is activating its assets one by one to resist. From its cryptocurrency empire to its control over submarine cables, Iran is laying down its cards one by one… with weapons that are sometimes unsuspected, and yet very strategic.
With the war in the Middle East, the whole world became aware of the vital importance of the Strait of Hormuz for world trade. But it is not the only strategic maritime “choke point”. In the Indo-Pacific, two other straits, in the Chinese sphere of influence, can paralyze the world economy at the slightest regional spark. First, the Strait of Malacca, a strategic crossing point for China towards Europe and Africa. Then the Taiwan Strait, where the risk of conflict has never been so high.
How long can the world last without the oil passing through Hormuz? How long can Donald Trump justify this conflict to his electoral base? How long will it take Iran to rebuild its ballistic arsenal – or to resume its nuclear enrichment program? While the United States gets lost in the Iranian fog, the clock is ticking… and leaves us with an essential question: who is the master of the clocks? Adel Bakawan, one of the best specialists on the Middle East, director of the European Institute for Studies on the Middle East and North Africa, delivers his analysis to “L’ordre du monde”.
How to end a war? The question has undoubtedly tormented all the greatest generals in history. But does she interest Donald Trump? While the ceasefire with Iran has taken place, the American president is looking for a way out through negotiation, without much success so far. To decipher this suspended moment in the conflict, we offer you a special issue of “The Order of the World” with Gideon Rose, former editor-in-chief of the prestigious American journal Foreign Affairs and specialist in the mechanics of war.
Who really understands Donald Trump? For us French, the American president appears erratic at best, if not completely crazy. But seen from the United States, the subject is more nuanced. Romuald Sciora, director of the United States Political and Geostrategic Observatory at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations, is one of the best experts on American politics. Franco-American, he lives in the United States and follows the Republican’s second term day by day. Visiting Paris for the release of his comic book “America 250: a graphic history of the United States”, he delivers his analysis of Donald Trump’s strategy in “The Order of the World”.
The ceasefire in Iran suggests the end of a conflict which has completely reshaped the balance of power in the Middle East… and beyond. Because if Donald Trump proclaims his total victory against his enemy, in the shadows, China and Russia could well be the winners of this sequence. And Iran itself, with its control over the Strait of Hormuz, seems able to maintain a place of choice on the world stage. Find Annalisa Cappellini and Mathieu Jolivet in “L’ordre du monde” every Thursday on the BFM Business Youtube channel, on our site and in podcast on all listening platforms.
In Vietnam, in 1965, it only took a few weeks for the United States to switch from an air war to being bogged down on the ground. Today, certain signals are reappearing in Iran and this could play out in the coming days. But this war is not necessarily a parallel. Between the Strait of Hormuz, an extraordinary geography and a tenacious adversary, the risk is to enter into a much more complex conflict. Meanwhile, the consequences for Donald Trump are already there: rising gas prices, pressure from Congress, upcoming elections, and a shifting public opinion. And in the background, another power is advancing its pawns: China.
One war eclipses another. While the whole world has its eyes fixed on the Middle East, Vladimir Putin seizes the opportunity and launches a major “spring offensive” against Ukraine: more than 600 attacks with thousands of drones which left 6,000 dead in 4 days. Volodymyr Zelensky calls on Donald Trump to renew his support for kyiv. Except that the American president is, in the opinion of many observers, stuck in Iran. But is this really the case? Going against the dominant discourse, we explain to you why Donald Trump may well be succeeding in his move. Find Annalisa Cappellini and Mathieu Jolivet in “L’ordre du monde” every Thursday on the BFM Business Youtube channel, on our site and in podcast on all listening platforms.
Can Donald Trump win his war in the Middle East alone? As disagreements with Israel come to light, the American president is trying to rally his European allies to his cause. Without much success, even the United Kingdom seems to let go of its most faithful partner. And on the other side of the globe, the United States’ main rival is getting impatient. China is bearing the brunt of the economic repercussions of the conflict. But until when will she remain impassive? Find Annalisa Cappellini and Mathieu Jolivet in “L’ordre du monde” every Thursday on the BFM Business Youtube channel, on our site and in podcast on all listening platforms.
“Four or five weeks” is how long the conflict against Iran should last, according to Donald Trump. But after almost two weeks, Iranian resistance does not really seem to be weakening, constantly regenerated by the regime’s “mosaic doctrine”. And the American president also seems less and less aligned with the objectives of his ally Benjamin Netanyahu. Enough to fear a war that is getting bogged down… Find Annalisa Cappellini and Mathieu Jolivet in “L’ordre du monde” every Thursday on the BFM Business Youtube channel, on our site and in podcast on all listening platforms
The world order has changed again. By launching strikes on Iran on Saturday February 18, the United States and Israel triggered an armed conflict which spread in a few days to the entire Middle East, and even to Europe since Cyprus was targeted by a drone Iranian. In the uninterrupted flow of images of bombings, it is essential to zoom out a little to take stock of the global geopolitical situation with regard to this war. Who has the most to lose? Who has the most to gain? Who are Iran’s allies? What is Donald Trump’s strategy? Find Annalisa Cappellini and Mathieu Jolivet in “L’ordre du monde” every Thursday on the BFM Business Youtube channel, on our site and in podcast on all listening platforms.
Narendra Modi traveled to Israel this week to meet his “friend” Benjamin Netanyahu. An official visit to extend the increasingly strong partnership between the two countries, notably through massive arms orders. But beyond economic complementarity, India and Israel share the same ideological vision, particularly on the question of the treatment of Muslim minorities. Find Annalisa Cappellini and Mathieu Jolivet in “L’ordre du monde” every Thursday on the BFM Business Youtube channel, on our site and in podcast on all listening platforms.
On the occasion of four years since the start of the war in Ukraine, focus on the primordial role of North Korea in this conflict. Now Moscow’s number 1 ally, Kim Jong-Un’s regime is revitalizing its land border with Russia to smuggle weapons and men through it. An estimated 14,000 North Koreans went to fight in Ukraine, 6,000 of whom were killed there. Also on the program for this episode: the agricultural battle behind the military battle between Russia and Ukraine, the new war doctrine of drones or even the crucial oil pipeline which supplies Hungary with Russian oil. Find Annalisa Cappellini and Mathieu Jolivet in “L’ordre du monde” every Thursday on the BFM Business Youtube channel, on our site and in podcast on all listening platforms.
Fragmented and ruined by years of dictatorship, civil war and the influence of Daesh terrorists, Syria is today seeking to rebuild itself. But the World Bank estimates the total cost at more than $200 billion. Syrian President Ahmed al-Charaa is therefore strategically moving closer to Saudi Arabia, with almost unlimited capital and which dreams of becoming an essential power in the Middle East. Also on the program for this episode: the port of Mariel, symbol of Cuba’s economic sinking; Putin’s 2007 speech which should have alerted everyone and the Sahel, disunited in the face of the resurgence of terrorism. Find Annalisa Cappellini and Mathieu Jolivet in “L’ordre du monde” every Thursday on the BFM Business Youtube channel, on our site and in podcast on all listening platforms.
After Venezuela, what if Donald Trump turned his attention to Peru? There, China created a breach in the “Donroe” doctrine by building and fully financing the immense port of Chancay. A gateway which should allow China to extend its New Silk Roads throughout Latin America and a reason for concern for American influence on the continent. Also on the program for this episode: the “Breturn” of the United Kingdom towards the EU, the global race for critical minerals, Turkey which dreams of being a world mediator, 34 chiefs of staff meeting in Washington and France which is opening its consulate in Greenland. Find Annalisa Cappellini and Mathieu Jolivet in “L’ordre du monde” every Thursday on the BFM Business Youtube channel, on our site and in podcast on all listening platforms.
The Franco-German couple is struggling. While France and Germany are increasing their differences, particularly on the Scaf, the combat aircraft of the future, Chancellor Friedrich Merz was received with great fanfare in Italy. Despite the criticism and her initial anti-EU positioning, Giorgia Meloni puts her country back on the European stage… to the detriment of France? Also on the program for this episode: the incredible historical anecdote about Saint-Pierre and Miquelon which foreshadowed the case of Greenland, the Canadian state of Alberta under pressure from Trump, the military purge of Xi Jinping, the American armada which threatens Iran and the use of Starlink by the Russian army. Find Annalisa Cappellini and Mathieu Jolivet in “L’ordre du monde” every Thursday on the BFM Business Youtube channel, on our site and in podcast on all listening platforms.
It’s not just Donald Trump who is shaking the world. In its zone of influence, China is increasingly worrying its neighbors. To organize themselves, Japan and the Philippines signed an unprecedented defense pact, making it possible to organize joint exercises and exchange military equipment… The sign that the entire Indo-Pacific zone is moving in the shadow of the Chinese ogre. Also on the program for this episode: the very strategic Suwalki corridor desired by Russia, the role of the Estée Lauder heir in Donald Trump’s obsession with Greenland, MAGA influencers who are shaking up the political agenda in the United States (and in the world) and a UN meeting with a surprising agenda. Find Annalisa Cappellini and Mathieu Jolivet in “L’ordre du monde” every Thursday on the BFM Business Youtube channel, on our site and in podcast on all listening platforms.
It is a mountain range that no one sees but that everyone wants to occupy: the Lomonossov Ridge, located between Greenland, Canada and Russia, and very rich in minerals, is the object of all covetousness between the great powers. And it also explains why Donald Trump covets Greenland so much. Also on the agenda for this episode: Canada warming up its relations with China, the “bump” in world demographics and the economic bet of the new Japanese Prime Minister. Find Annalisa Cappellini and Mathieu Jolivet in “L’ordre du monde” every Thursday on the BFM Business Youtube channel, on our site and in podcast on all listening platforms.
