The Pakistani mediator and Washington have expressed optimism in recent hours about the possibility, after weeks of laborious negotiations and disappointed hopes, of concluding an agreement ending the war in the Middle East.
The United States said it shot down several Iranian drones this Saturday, June 13, which were targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, despite the optimism displayed a few hours earlier by the two parties about a peace agreement.
“Iran launched several attack drones with the aim of striking commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” the US Middle East Command (Centcom) wrote on X.
“American forces have shot them all down in recent hours, and maritime traffic in the strait remains fluid,” he added.
Optimism on both sides
This incident comes at a time when Tehran, the Pakistani mediator and Washington are expressing optimism about the possibility, after weeks of laborious negotiations and dashed hopes, of reaching an agreement ending the war in the Middle East.
The versions of a possible compromise given by the Iranian media and Washington present significant differences.
“As soon as the final stages of our negotiations are completed, this agreement will be signed and announced,” declared the head of Iranian diplomacy Abbas Araghchi on state television. “It could happen in the next few days. I’m hopeful.”
“Peace has never been so close”
Abbas Araghchi affirmed that the draft agreement provided for the lifting of the American blockade of Iranian ports and a new management of the Strait of Hormuz. But he accused Israel of looking for “pretexts” to “derail” a possible agreement with Washington.
Same hope from the Prime Minister of Pakistan, the main negotiator in the conflict. “Peace has never been closer than today,” said Shehbaz Sharif.
And in Washington, a senior official estimated the probability of a framework agreement opening a 60-day period of technical discussions at “80 to 85%”, but “not 100%”. “The finish line has not yet been crossed,” he warned, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Switzerland offers to host a possible signature
Switzerland has already offered to host a possible signing, while a G7 summit in the presence of Donald Trump is due to begin on Monday in the French town of Evian, near Geneva. But Tehran said that once finalized, the memorandum of understanding would be signed “remotely”.
The markets are betting on such an outcome, with oil falling below the $90 per barrel mark on Friday.
The conflict, triggered by American-Israeli strikes on February 28 before a truce came into effect on April 8, has engulfed the Middle East, left thousands dead, mainly in Iran and Lebanon, and shaken the world economy.
The American president, who has already announced an imminent agreement 39 times according to a CNN count, is struggling to find a way out of this unpopular war, with the approach of the mid-term elections in November and in the middle of the World Cup co-organized by the United States.
He issued an angry message on Friday on his Truth Social network: “The terms (agreement) that Iran leaked to the lying media have NOTHING to do with the terms we agreed to in writing.”
“These are people who have no honor. With them, it is impossible to negotiate in good faith,” he also wrote.
A draft protocol distributed in the Iranian press
Iran’s Mehr news agency earlier published what it presented as a 14-point draft protocol, with conditions including maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, the right to uranium enrichment, the rapid release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds abroad. Washington, for its part, delivered a completely different version of the text.
The compromise must, according to the American official, lead to the reopening of Hormuz, a strategic sea route for global hydrocarbon trade.
It must also lead to the “dismantling” of the Iranian nuclear program and allow the United States to recover highly enriched uranium, which would be “destroyed on site” then “taken out” of the country.
Iran denies wanting to acquire atomic weapons
But Abbas Araghchi recommended on Friday a dilution on Iranian soil of its stocks of uranium enriched to 60%.
Diluting uranium to a level below 5%, far from the 90% required to make the nuclear bomb, would considerably reduce the threat of enrichment for military purposes. Tehran denies wanting to acquire atomic weapons, as the United States and Israel accuse.
Finally, on the question of assets, “the Iranians will not receive money and the funds will not be released simply by signing an agreement or participating in a meeting”, insisted on X the American vice-president JD Vance.
This point is central for Iran, after decades of sanctions which are suffocating its economy.
Another major sticking point, the Lebanese front. According to Washington, the agreement under discussion with Iran does include Lebanon, as requested by Tehran, while the United States had always said it wanted to treat this issue separately.
Lebanon was drawn into war on March 2, when Hezbollah targeted Israeli territory in support of Iran. Since then, Israel has been shelling the neighboring country, saying it wants to “eliminate” the Shiite movement. Strikes which left more than 3,700 dead.
