FAO predicts decline in global cereal production in 2026

Read later

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) monthly note on cereal supply and demand, which provides an overview of the latest developments in the global cereal market, the global production of cereals, including rice expressed in milled equivalent, should decline during the 2026/2027 campaign by 2.0% over one year, to stand at 2,982 million tonnes.

According to the FAO, production of all major cereals is expected to be below record levels in 2025. The largest one-year decline, in percentage terms, is expected for wheat, while the most limited decline would be seen for maize and barley.

Global cereal use is expected to increase by 0.6% in 2026/2027, to reach 2,969 million tonnes. Global food consumption of cereals is expected to increase by 1.0% compared to the 2025/2026 season, while use for animal feed is expected to increase by 0.5%. This development would be driven by an increase in the use of corn and barley, while the use of wheat and rice for animal feed should decrease. Other uses of cereals should decline slightly, by 0.2%, due to a drop in the use of wheat and barley.

World cereal stocks are also forecast to contract by 0.3% from their start-of-season levels, to 949.0 million tonnes. This expected drop would be mainly explained by the expected decline in stocks of rice and sorghum, which would compensate for the reconstitution of stocks of wheat and barley. Based on current forecasts, the ratio of global cereal stocks to utilization is expected to remain close to its 2025/2026 level, at 31.7%.

Note that the FAO cereal price index averaged 114.3 points in May, an increase of 2.9 points, or 2.6%, compared to April, and 5.3 points, or 4.94%, compared to its level recorded a year earlier. This continued progression reflects the rise in prices of all major cereals.

World wheat prices rose for the fourth consecutive month in May, supported by weaker harvest prospects in major exporting countries.

What is happening in Tunisia?
We explain on our YouTube channel. Subscribe!