Oil market: why prices are soaring at the start of 2026

More than a bout of fever, it is an underlying trend that has been taking hold since the start of 2026: an almost continuous rise in the price of oils, on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange where palm oil is fetching more than $1,000 per tonne, an increase of more than 25% in five months, on the Chicago Stock Exchange where soybean oil saw its price jump 15% over the same period.

Prices “on average 50% higher today than the start of 2020”

Wheat prices, which had soared between the Covid crisis and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have fallen to levels lower than in 2020. Conversely, on the oil side, prices are on average 50% higher today than at the start of 2020,” notes Sébastien Poncelet, agricultural market analyst at Argus Media.

“With the war in Iran and the significant rise in oil prices, we have seen a reactivation of interest in agrofuels and renewable energies,” explains Antoine de Gasquet, president of the oil brokerage company Baillon-Intercor. All those who were already making biodiesel are increasing their capacities, and those who were not making it want to get started. »

The political context is favorable, he continues, “because with oil at 100 dollars, populations are more inclined to hear a speech on agrofuels.” The situation is however diverse depending on the crops and production zones.

Soybean prices supported by the agreement between the United States and China

In the United States, soy prices are thus supported both by recent trade agreements with China and by “the decision of the Trump government to very significantly increase mandates for biofuels”, that is to say an increase in various quotas for the incorporation of oils.

“The obligation to use biofuels plays a major role” in maintaining prices “because it guarantees solid demand in the United States,” underlines Arlan Suderman, analyst for the brokerage platform StoneX.

This could even lead to a “risk of a soybean shortage in the United States” if China keeps its commitments to buy 25 million tonnes of the oilseed in 2026, while farmers will only arbitrate their trade-offs between crops, and in particular between corn and soya, next October-November.

But already, notes Antoine de Gasquet, biodiesel production in the United States is expected at “16.5 million tonnes in 2026-2027, compared to 13.2 million tonnes the previous year”. And the country even imports oil from Canada to meet demand.

Objectives revised upwards for biofuels

Indonesia, which is the leading producer of palm oil with 50 million tonnes per year, also wants to push the incorporation of oil into its fuel as much as possible.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced a week ago that sales of all natural resources, starting with palm oil, should in future pass through state companies designated by the government.

This measure aims to optimize the state’s tax revenues – and to reduce the bill for petroleum products – while the country announced at the end of March its intention to increase the use of palm oil in biofuels in 2026, by incorporating up to 50% (B50, against B45 currently).

For several years, biodiesel has established itself as a valuable and palliative outlet for the low storage capacity of Indonesia, whose oil is loaded onto ships while waiting to be sold: these “floating stocks” deteriorate quickly and the unsold are used to make biodiesel, recalls Antoine de Gasquet.

Fewer sunflowers in Europe, but more rapeseed

As for Europe, the drop in sunflower production over the last two years has had the effect of favoring the cultivation of rapeseed, another oilseed whose prices have soared by almost 20% since the end of 2025, trading at more than 525 euros per tonne on Euronext.

At the global level, oil prices are also supported by the threat of the El Niño phenomenon in Asia, where too dry weather would reduce palm nut harvests, underlines Antoine de Gasquet.

AFP