Space, once again a geopolitical competition Space, once again a geopolitical competition

During his visit to Toronto this week, I spoke with former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison about his country’s bold bets in the space sector and the lessons Canada can learn from them.

Mr Morrison helped accelerate the Australian space sector and is now active in the global sector, particularly in the United States. Here is some of the information he shared with me and a group of Canadian leaders and investors:

• Space is once again becoming a geopolitical competition, as was the case with the space race of the 1950s and 1970s. Almost every aspect of intelligence and national security now has a connection to space.

• Canada should view space as a means to join the world’s most important military and security alliances. AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) is one of these groups, as are Quad (US, Australia, India and Japan) and the Five Eyes intelligence network of the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

• It is interesting to watch AUKUS, which is shifting its focus from submarines and undersea domination to orbital domination. Space could be an opportunity for Canada to join the AUKUS2 alliance.

• NATO has been slow on space, but that will change. The war in Ukraine – and the role of satellites and drones – indicates the location of the next battlefields.

• The sector is expected to grow around 9% annually, driven heavily by semiconductors, satellites and global demand for AI.

• Together, AI and space will be the megatrends that shape the next 50 years and global security, the economy and national capabilities.

• A dedicated national space agency, under the supervision of senior government officials, is essential to the growth of the sector: it will ensure critical mass, coordination and legitimacy.

• Large private sector players are also essential, but public capital and international partnerships are needed.

• Launches establish legitimacy. If a country cannot launch its own assets into orbit – as is currently the case with Canada – it will not become a leader. Australia wants to build the only near-equatorial launch site among the Five Eyes, which would make it even more indispensable to its intelligence partners.

• Don’t stop at launches. “The attractive thing is rockets,” but real growth in this sector depends on infrastructure, logistics, testing, scientific support and service capacity.

• Other countries are not remaining idle. Japan is strengthening its space ambitions by targeting 30 launches per year and relying on close state-sector coordination. New Zealand launched the Rocket Lab and a particularly politically dynamic space program.

Here’s what Canada needs, according to Mr. Morrison:

• A credible and financially supported national space strategy;

• A capacity that others need;

• The desire to invest politically and financially in line with the commitments made by the United States and Australia;

• A concrete capability that strengthens our alliances, including space awareness, Arctic surveillance, satellite manufacturing, launch capability, AI detection and cyber integration;

• Security-focused considerations aligned with allies’ threat assessments, particularly those regarding China.

“Ultimately, this is a security initiative, not a sector expansion initiative. At home, governments will discuss jobs and economic benefits. On the other hand, in Washington, Canberra, London, Tokyo or Wellington, the argument must strictly be: “This is Canada’s capacity in terms of collective security.”