Geopolitics: Trump, or the art of strategy without “what if”?

Par Nezha Hami-Eddine Echaïri
Business Coach, DG du cabinet Cap RH

A strategy is not one-way. Let me explain: we consider an action that succeeds and, at the same time, we ask ourselves the question: and if it does not succeed, what should we do? These are the famous “what ifs” which have been the strength and admiration of the American army since the Second World War.

Vision vs stratégie
“Where there is a will, there is a way”. The “will” is the vision. The “way” is the strategy. When you know what you want, you find your way. Moral: every strategy must flow from a vision. Without a course, the ship wanders. Ghost ship, they said. In Donald Trump’s MAGA politics, there is a “big will”. But, for the “way”, his team is still groping. You remember, from the first days of his mandate, he announced to the entire planet the decisions he was going to take to restore the image of the USA. It’s the famous “Make America great again” (MAGA). This acronym provides information on his vision of the situation in the USA, which is losing its luster. To make the USA strong, Donald Trump promised to buy Canada, to seize Greenland as well as the Gulf of Mexico and to tax the economies which are failing at the expense of the United States.

MAGA made Canada stronger
Before this announcement, the Canadian economy was very dependent on its American neighbor which captured 70% of its exports. The strategy planned to stifle the Canadian economy to bring it to its knees. It was then enough to pick Canada to make it the 51st American state. A bit of a corporate takeover style. Perhaps Trump was hoping to buy Canada for the “token dollar”? Ottawa fought back. “Buy Canadian” flourished. Some American products and brands have been renamed or Frenchized. Canada has succeeded in selling its oil to China, whose production machine is in demand.

On the other hand, American refineries, specialized in refining Canadian light oil, are currently in great difficulty. Thanks to this announcement, Canada has gained economic maturity. Trump’s team suffered the backlash. She hadn’t considered any “what if†. She went there like a hussar, like in the days of the Far West. However, historical conditions are not repetitive. Cowboys cannot bring back loot on every ride.

MAGA has penalized the average American
Today we are at the forefront of one of the biggest trade wars of all time. It is rivaled only by the commercial war waged by Christian Europe in the 15th century against the Muslim world crossed by the Silk Road. Remember the Crusades. The great geographical discoveries of America, the Cape of Good Hope and the Suez Canal had the sole ambition of bypassing Muslim countries in order to deprive them of the financial windfall from this trade.

Let us point out that Muslim countries unfairly did not levy a tithe. Nay! All along the Silk Road, several thousand kilometers long, the Muslim countries crossed by the caravans had set up caravanserais, shelters, foundouks, rest stops, mosques and other places of worship. They had developed real skills in accompanying caravans for their orientation by “reading the stars”, as well as for their defense against bandits and wild animals in the territories crossed. This, of course, came at a price. But this was not to Europe’s taste.

Man of his word
Today, Donald Trump wants to deprive certain countries of the financial windfall represented by their trade with the United States: “Make America great again”. The American president is a man of his word. He does what he says. Many thought it was election campaign bluster. The crowd, the applause, the olas, the slogans, the fervor, it makes the adrenaline rise.

Despite the tumults, Donald Trump is staying the course. Sometimes he reformulates his promises. His ambition is no longer “Make America great again”, but “Make America rich again”. It’s not bad, but we still talk MAGA. When he promised to impose high customs taxes on countries that profit from the USA’s backs, no one believed him. Even less the business elite. As proof, I cite the fact that the American Stock Exchange experienced an earthquake the day after the official announcement of these taxes. This has only one meaning: Wall Street financiers gave no credence to his promise. If so, they would have made a plan.

Achilles heel
One of his first announcements, the purchase of Canada, had come to naught. Donald Trump, let’s not forget, is a showbiz man. He excels in dramatic moves to amaze his audience before administering the final uppercut. For us coaches, the vision is the dream situation.

It is not forbidden to dream. On the contrary, we must dream a little more. After the dream, we come back to earth to operationalize the vision, it is a strategy that will make the dream a reality. And this, in my opinion, is the Achilles heel of the “Trumpist” vision. The purpose of the taxes is to increase the price of targeted products to protect the national economy and to generate additional customs revenue for the state coffers. But, the local importer includes this tax in the sales price. Ultimately, it is the American consumer who is toast.