The food crisis which threatens to hit the planet now takes on a tragic dimension. The United Nations is sounding the alarm: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz raises the specter of famine over 45 million additional human beings across the world. This alert, formulated by Jorge Moreira da Silva, head of the UN working group formed at the end of March, reveals the extent of the repercussions that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East can have on the planetary food balance.
From Nairobi, the Secretary General of the UN, António Guterres, launched a solemn warning: “any resumption of fighting would have terrible consequences”. Speaking on the sidelines of the Africa Forward summit, he denied the idea that the Middle East emergency constitutes a “distant crisis”, recalling that around 13% of African imports depend on this sensitive maritime artery.
Hormuz, vital bottleneck for global agriculture
The Strait of Hormuz, this 33-kilometer maritime strip which connects the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world, constitutes an essential link in the global food chain. A third of all fertilizers transported by sea usually pass through this strategic corridor. This colossal dependence explains why its current closure is shaking the very foundations of global agricultural markets.
Chemical fertilizers – urea, ammonia, sulfur – form the backbone of contemporary agriculture. According to data from Our World in Data, synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, resulting from the Haber-Bosch process, can support approximately 48% of the current world population. Deprived of these crucial inputs, traditional agriculture could only feed two billion people.
The FAO report confirms this vital dependence: the disruption of fertilizer supplies will compromise agricultural yields until 2027. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations anticipates that some cereal yields will collapse by half this summer.
An unprecedented price escalation according to the UN
The data disclosed by the UN testify to the acuteness of this food crisis nascent. The price of urea, one of the most widely used nitrogen fertilizers in the world, has soared by more than 35% in just one month. This outbreak occurs at the heart of the planting season, instantly amplifying the impact on agricultural production costs.
António Guterres stressed that “this is the only way to return energy and fertilizer prices to the levels that prevailed before the war.” This statement illustrates the complex entanglement between energy and agricultural markets, both dependent on transit through Hormuz.
Inflation is not limited to fertilizers alone. According to analyzes by International Business Times, insurance companies are now refusing to cover ships using the strait, de facto paralyzing shipments. This situation creates a vicious circle where the scarcity of supply fuels the escalation of prices.
The UN’s red alert in the face of the temporal emergency
Jorge Moreira da Silva made a striking observation: “When the crisis broke out, we knew that a few countries would be affected, particularly in Africa and South-East Asia. Today, the situation is much more dramatic, because the entire fertilizer market is faltering. HAS”
The UN has identified May 15 as the fateful deadline. Beyond this deadline, the incompressible delivery times would make irremediable the consequences for the 2026 harvests. This drastically narrowed time window is explained by the immutability of agricultural calendars: sowing begins in June in the countries of Sahel, crops in the Horn of Africa require fertilizer from the beginning of June, and the agricultural intervention windows do not suffer any postponement.
The UN official said that “we would need on average five ships per day” to deliver vital fertilizer. “It’s a simple mechanism from a logistical point of view. In seven days, we can implement it. What is lacking is political will,” he lamented. As La Tribune points out in its analysis of the blockade of Hormuz, this situation poses the risk of a major humanitarian crisis for 45 million people.
Geopolitical risks and humanitarian consequences
The geopolitical examination reveals alarming systemic vulnerabilities. The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, although large exporters of fertilizers, import 80 to 90% of their own food according to expert estimates. This paradox illustrates the precariousness of global supply chains.
The food crisis announced would particularly hit sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya, although relatively spared thanks to the completion of its planting season, remains worried about the supply of fertilizer to neighboring nations. António Guterres warned: “Without fertilizer, you can imagine that we risk facing a serious food security problem next year. HAS”
The repercussions transcend the strict dietary framework. An emergency humanitarian aid operation would require several billion dollars according to the UN. This estimate only takes into account immediate needs, without considering long-term subsidy programs essential to stabilize markets. This problem recalls that mentioned concerning inflation in Europe and the general rise in prices.
Worsening climate outlook
Scientists are warning of an aggravating factor: the planet risks being hit this year by an El Niño phenomenon of exceptional intensity. This climatic anomaly will bring extreme heat and droughtsfurther reducing agricultural yields already threatened by fertilizer shortages.This combination of factors – geopolitical blockage, shortage of agricultural inputs and unfavorable climatic conditions – composes an explosive cocktail for global food security.
The international community faces a critical temporal dilemma. As Jorge Moreira da Silva pointed out on Franceinfo: “If we do not quickly put an end to the origins of the crisis, we will have to manage the consequences through humanitarian aid. » The emergency no longer tolerates diplomatic procrastination in the face of this global food crisis. This situation echoes global environmental challenges, like those mentioned in the context of the protection of endangered species, where collective action is crucial.
