Washington (awp/afp) – World stock markets ended without a clear direction on Monday after the American rejection of Tehran’s counter-proposal for a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East.
Paris from recolé (-0.69%) and Frankfurt from terminé à l’équilibre (+0.05%). London (+0.36%) and Milan (+0.76%) ended in légère hausse. From Zurich, le SMI a fini à l’équilibre (+0.01%).
In New York, the Nasdaq (+0.10%) and the broader S&P 500 index (+0.19%) once again reached peaks, finishing respectively at 26,274.13 and 7,412.84 points. The Dow Jones gained 0.19%.
“The (American) market decided today that geopolitical issues were just background noise,” Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers commented to AFP.
Investors thus “generally ignored” on Monday the new rise in oil prices, caused by the American rejection of Tehran’s counter-proposal for a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East, notes the analyst.
The Iranian response to the latest American proposal is “to be thrown in the trash”, judged the American president before the press at the White House on Monday.
“There is a slight concern that the situation in Iran could worsen, but, at the moment, no one really fears that this will happen,” said Patrick O’Hare of Briefing.com.
Le pétrole repart à la hausse
Contrary to Wall Street, the impasse in the negotiations has tensed operators on the oil market because it could “aggravate the regional supply shock”, warn analysts at Eurasia Group.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in July, gained 2.88% to 104.21 dollars.
Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, for delivery in June, rose 2.78% to 98.07 dollars.
“No decisive progress is in sight (and) at the same time, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill,” underline the Eurasia experts.
During a telephone call with a Fox News journalist, Donald Trump, however, said that he was considering relaunching his operation to protect ships to cross this narrow passage, after more than two months of blockage.
Even in the hypothetical scenario of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in mid-May, it would take “45 to 50 days” before a real “relief for the market”, the time for production to resume and maritime traffic to normalize, estimate analysts at the Societe Generale.
In total, only 3.9 million barrels per day (Mb/d) pass through the Strait of Hormuz compared to 20 Mb/d before the war, estimates Helge André Martinsen, senior energy analyst for DNB Carnegie.
Interest rate pressure
The rise in oil prices is maintaining pressure on sovereign debt interest rates, pending a possible increase in the deposit rate at the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) in mid-June.
The German yield with a 10-year maturity, a benchmark on the continent, reached 3.04%, compared to 3.00% on Friday evening. Its French equivalent stood at 3.66%, compared to 3.62%.
Across the Atlantic, the ten-year yield on American government bonds rose to 4.41% compared to 4.35%.
The greenback was almost stable against the single European currency (+0.04%), at 1.1781 dollars per euro.
L’inflation américaine scrutée
Markets are preparing to receive new data on rising prices in the United States, including the consumer price index (CPI) on Tuesday, then producer-side inflation (PPI) on Wednesday.
“Everyone understands that rising energy prices will cause inflation to rise. The question is how much,” says Steve Sosnick.
Figures corresponding to expectations could reinforce “the idea that it is not necessary for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise its rates this year”, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst for Swissquote Bank.
Before the outbreak of war, analysts anticipated at least two rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve before the end of the year. No relaxation is now expected in 2026, according to the CME FedWatch monitoring tool.
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