“The confrontation between Israel and Iran, the climax of the conflict in the Middle East, had been brewing for decades. But he widened the battlefield. We have opened a Pandora’s box that we cannot close. The Iranian question is reshaping the region,” analyzes Ifri specialist Dorothée Schmid on the occasion of the “World Policy Conference,” the 18th edition of which was held in Chantilly.
For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia and Vladimir Putin were notably absent from the conference, organized each year by Thierry de Montbrial, the president of the French Institute of International Relations. As if both had been drowned by the waves of the tsunami which have covered the Middle East since the launch of the Israeli-American operation against one of the most repressive and dangerous regimes on the planet. “I often say that my nightmares are better than my days, because at least they disappear when we wake up,” comments Nabil Fahmy, former Egyptian foreign minister and new secretary general of the Arab League, to illustrate the chaos that has gripped the region and the trauma that the transformation of the world deposits there.
Hope of an Iranian threat gone
Politicians and experts from around the world gathered in Chantilly agreed that, despite the “information fog” which still prevents analysts from making sense of the crisis, the war in Iran, whatever its outcome, has already profoundly changed the Middle East.
“This conflict is different from the others. For the first time, the Strait of Hormuz was closed. For the first time, non-belligerent countries – the Gulf States – were attacked – by Iran. The threat has also changed: it now comes mainly from drones and light equipment,” analyzes Jihad Azour, Middle East director at the IMF.
As Israeli-US bombings have weakened Iran’s military infrastructure, the regime has changed its deterrence strategy. Long based on the nuclear program, ballistic missiles and “proxies” in the region, it is now organized around the Strait of Hormuz, a formidable lever for the benefit of Tehran, but also around drones, easy to produce and cheap.
Iranian attacks on the Gulf states and their civilian infrastructure have opened wounds that will take a long time to heal, especially in countries that had been moving backwards toward reconciliation with Iran.
“It is illusory to believe that we will be able to reestablish trust between the United Arab Emirates and Iran. We cannot be attacked with 2,800 missiles and drones and then talk about confidence. It will take forever,” warns Anwar Gargash, the influential diplomatic adviser to the UAE president.
The former UAE foreign minister hopes that the Middle East will one day be free of the Iranian threat. As long as the “ideological projects led by the extremists – Hamas, Hezbollah and the Israeli right wing” – are defeated, he still believes in the extension of the Abraham Accords, which brought his country closer to Israel and which are still for him “a platform for cooperation “.
“What Iran did to the Gulf countries is unacceptable. But my country wants to have good relations with both Iran and Israel,” Nabil Fahmy, former Egyptian Foreign Minister
On condition that the countries of the region do not repeat the same mistakes. We need, he says, an inclusive approach for Syria, a Palestinian state for Gaza, a Lebanon which regains control of its borders and its destiny and an Israel which succeeds in transforming its military successes into political successes, even if this requires helping it by cooperating more… But not all regional officials are so understanding of Israeli projects. “What Iran has done to the Gulf countries is unacceptable. But my country wants to have good relations both with Iran and with Israel,” explains Nabil Fahmy, the former Egyptian minister.
Everywhere, we are mainly waiting for the day after, without knowing what it will look like, because its advent depends in part on the changing decisions of Donald Trump.
Some, referring to Israel’s “strategic solitude”, see the future as bleak, like Itamar Rabinovich, the vice-director of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv. “As long as the Iranian regime remains, nuclear and ballistic threats will remain. Hezbollah will not disappear. Hamas will remain in Gaza. And Lebanon will always be occupied by a foreign militia. Israel must therefore prepare for a future confrontation with Iran. »
Others consider that Israel has already gained a lot from this war, which has temporarily eliminated the threat from Iran and reduced its capacity to cause harm in the world.
However, the continuation of negotiations between the Americans and the Iranians will not mark the end of the story. “The Iranian threat will not disappear. The regime has continued to prepare for this war and it recently proved that it could very quickly replenish its ballistic arsenal,” said Anne Claire Legendre, president of the Arab World Institute. She imagines three scenarios for the day after. An identical Iranian regime, a regime with a new “behavior”, and a change of regime. When?
“We are at a pivotal phase. If the war lasts, it will weigh on the whole world,” warns Jihad Azour, the head of the IMF.
After having hoped that a Venezuelan-style scenario could modify the nature of the Islamic regime, Donald Trump today thinks that economic pressure on the Strait of Hormuz will make it possible to strangle and defeat it. Here too, what is the deadline, when the American president is pressed by the time of democracies, that is to say, that of elections? It is the IMF economist, Jihad Azour, who says it: “We are at a crossroads. It is unclear what deal will be signed or what security will emerge. This is the first time that what is happening in the Middle East has consequences throughout the world. HAS”
>Read the article on the Figaro website
