The United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC and the expanded OPEC+ alliance comes amidst strong tensions in both energy and geopolitical spheres, marking a significant shift in global oil governance architecture.
The regional tensions have intensified around production quotas set by OPEC+, designed to regulate barrel prices by limiting supply. Some producing states increasingly challenge these quotas, claiming they hinder economic growth potential and energy sovereignty.
In the current context, a UAE exit could lead to increased production autonomy. Logistics and geopolitical constraints, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, would remain crucial in the short term. Long-term implications include a rise in global oil supply and downward pressure on prices, extending beyond oil markets to regional geopolitical balances.
OPEC: An Organization Founded on Defending Producer Interests
Founded in 1960 in Baghdad by five founding countries – Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, OPEC aimed to coordinate oil policies to stabilize prices and defend producer countries against major international companies.
The UAE, through Abu Dhabi, has been part of this dynamic before the federation’s official creation in 1971. Their position within the cartel has historically aligned with major Gulf producers, notably Saudi Arabia.
OPEC+ was created in December 2016 in response to falling oil prices due to global oversupply. This agreement between OPEC and non-member producers like Russia aimed to coordinate production to reduce excess supply and stabilize crude prices.
Nevertheless, the global energy balance has significantly shifted over the past two decades.
The Rise of the United States and Weakness in the Cartel
One major disruption for OPEC+ is the emergence of the United States as the world’s top oil producer, thanks to the shale oil revolution. Since 2017, the U.S. has broken several production records, reaching around 13 million barrels per day in 2023. This surge has reduced the effectiveness of OPEC+ quotas by introducing independent competitive supply into the market.
Gradually, the organization’s ability to durably influence global prices has weakened, though it retains a structuring role.
Past Exits and Strategic Repositioning
The UAE’s exit wouldn’t be unprecedented in the organization’s recent history. Several states have already left or suspended their participation. In 2019, Qatar withdrew from OPEC to focus on natural gas production and exports, becoming a major global player in this sector.
This withdrawal occurred during a highly tense political context marked by the Gulf crisis and a boycott by neighboring countries until the 2021 reconciliation at the Al-Ula summit in Saudi Arabia.
This precedent underlines that energy decisions are rarely independent of regional political dynamics, as illustrated by the recent conflict between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over Yemen.
Recomposition of Regional Sunni Alliances
Recent trends show the gradual emergence of new regional alignments within the Sunni world. An evolving axis, notably visible since the 2023 Gaza war, includes Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, with openness towards other actors, including Qatar.
Egypt and Turkey have recently pursued diplomatic rapprochements following years of tension, while Saudi Arabia has taken a more cautious approach toward major regional normalization initiatives.
In this context, the UAE appears as an actor with a more independent approach structured around normalization with Israel through the Abraham Accords signed in 2020.
Gaza, Iran, and New Fracture Lines
The ongoing Gaza war since 2023 has significantly reshaped regional dynamics, fueling tensions over the Palestinian issue and slowing some normalization processes.
The relationship with Iran remains a structuring factor. Saudi Arabia favors a gradual de-escalation and dialogue-based approach, whereas the UAE supports a firmer deterrence strategy.
Infrastructure Projects and New Strategic Corridors
Another element of this reconfiguration is seen in the major digital infrastructure project in Syria. The Saudi Telecom Company acquired 75% stake, with the Syrian sovereign fund responsible for the country’s internet reconstruction holding only 25%. This project aims to connect Syria to the European fiber-optic network via Greece, expanding Arab-European connectivity while circumventing Israel, with whom commercial agreements were previously considered under the Abraham Accords.
The central question remains the sustainability of these new alignments. These dynamics occur in a context where U.S. influence on the emerging axis remains crucial, militarily, economically, and diplomatically.
Lebanon facing Regional Geopolitical Recompositions
For countries like Lebanon, these regional recompositions directly impact internal balances and negotiations with Israel, under U.S. sponsorship. In a transitional phase marked by alliance shifts, Lebanon must prioritize a rational approach based on national interest rather than sectarian logics that could perpetuate endless crises.
