ANALYSIS – Emmanuel Macron and the temptation of a tri

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lediplomate.media – printed on 01/05/2026

By Olivier d’Auzon – Discover his latest book at Erick Bonnier: AFRICA 3.0

A “coalition of independents” against the bipolarization of the world

During his visit to South Korea in early April 2026, Emmanuel Macron brought to the heart of the international strategic debate an idea he had already hinted at during the Shangri-La Dialogue: the formation of a “coalition of independents,” as journalist Andrew Korybko gladly comments.

The stated objective is clear: to prevent the international system from structuring permanently around a Sino-American duopoly. The French President expressed it unambiguously: it is about not becoming “vassals of two hegemonic powers,” neither dependent on China nor overly exposed to American political fluctuations.

By uniting actors such as South Korea, Japan, India, Brazil, Australia, Canada, and Europeans around this ambition, Emmanuel Macron outlines the contours of a “third way.”

From bipolar to “tri-multipolar”: an evolution of the international system

The implicit diagnosis posed by Paris is that of a world that could be called “bi-multipolar”: two dominant superpowers – the United States and China – coexist with a plurality of regional or intermediate powers, without these alone being able to structure the global order.

The French proposition precisely aims to move beyond this configuration to bring about a “tri-multipolar” system. In this scheme, a third force – not being an equivalent superpower – would exert a structuring influence on international balances.

This force would play an adjusting role: by positioning itself between Washington and Beijing, it would help limit their hegemonic capacity while attracting states keen on preserving their strategic autonomy. It would thus contribute to the emergence of a more complex international order, sometimes called “multiplex.”

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Three scenarios for a third force

The concept of tri-multipolarity can take several configurations.

The first is based on the emergence of a single pivot state, often envisaged in the form of a “civilizational state.” Some analysts believe that Russia could play this role, or at least come close to it.

The second hypothesis involves a structured alliance between major powers. The strategic partnership between Russia and India is sometimes mentioned as a possible basis for such a scenario.

Finally, the third configuration – the most realistic – would be a coordination platform between several intermediate or regional powers. Formats like BRICS are regularly cited as embryos of this dynamic.

It is within this latter perspective that Emmanuel Macron’s proposal fits.

An underlying Indian inspiration

However, this approach is not without precedent. It is part of a trend observable in Indian foreign policy.

This approach is part of a dynamic at work in India. In an article titled “India courts middle powers in global diplomatic push,” published on March 3, 2025, the Financial Times emphasizes that New Delhi “is rapidly deepening its ties with intermediary powers […] as well as with the European Union.”

India, pivot state of the new world order

In this context, India occupies a unique position. Through its demographic weight, economic growth, and strategic autonomy, it emerges as a central actor in the ongoing systemic transition.

Its inclusion in the “coalition of independents” is not trivial: it reflects Paris’s recognition of the structuring role New Delhi could play in the international architecture of tomorrow.

This centrality is also perceived by other major powers. The economic rapprochement between the United States and India, as well as the strength of Russo-Indian relations, testify to this.

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A determining factor for global balance

Therefore, India’s strategic orientation appears as a crucial factor. Depending on whether it aligns more with the United States, Russia, or Europe, global balances could evolve significantly.

In this perspective, the “coalition of independents” cannot be analyzed independently of the ability of its members to articulate around a pivot actor like India.

Between conceptual ambition and geopolitical constraints

Emmanuel Macron’s proposal presents undeniable intellectual coherence: it responds to an emerging reality, that of a more fragmented and less hierarchical world.

However, it faces several limits. The heterogeneity of interests among the concerned states, the persistence of economic and security dependencies, as well as the absence of structuring institutions, pose obstacles to the realization of such a project.

The “third way” outlined by Paris thus appears, at this stage, as a strategic ambition rather than a forming reality.

A correct intuition, an uncertain implementation

Ultimately, the French initiative highlights a central question of our time: how to exist in a world dominated by two great powers without being absorbed into their orbit?

If Emmanuel Macron’s proposed answer deserves discussion, its implementation will depend less on declarations of intention and more on the ability of the concerned states to transform a convergence of interests into a real political project.

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