The degradation is settling in. The 155th Grant Thornton barometer of confidence for SMEs-ETIs, published in mid-April, confirms a lasting shift in the economic climate. Conducted by OpinionWay among 220 executives, the study highlights a marked drop in optimism in a context of international tension.
“March warned us. April confirms: ETI and SME leaders are no longer facing a conjunctural shock, but a deep reorganization of global economic balances. Caution has taken root in strategies, employment is slowing down, and decisions need to be made. It is precisely in these moments that quality support makes a difference, the kind that helps to decide, not just to wait,” declared Adam Nicol, president of Grant Thornton.
A dwindling confidence in the French and global economy
The signal is clear according to the study: only 22% of executives declare themselves optimistic about the evolution of the French economy, a historically low level since the end of the health crisis, compared to 66% a year ago. All sectors are affected, with a majority of concerned actors in industry, trade, and services.
Internationally, the situation is even more degraded. Confidence drops to 18%, an unprecedented low since 2020. The tensions in the Middle East amplify the effects of the oil shock and disrupt global supply chains.
Activity: a generalized decline
Companies’ activity prospects are also declining. This month, 66% of executives are confident about their own company, a 10-point decrease in two months. The indicator falls below 70%, breaking the positive trend observed in 2025. All sectors are affected: services decline to 75%, trade to 65%, and industry to 61%. A homogeneous decline reflecting a general concern.
So far resilient, the employment dynamics show a clear slowdown. Only 11% of executives plan to increase their workforce, while 10% expect to reduce it. The employment balance decreases by 1 point, indicating a fragile situation. This apparent stabilization hides a real risk of shifting into negative territory in an uncertain environment.
Growth and investments under pressure
Growth prospects are contracting strongly: 39% of executives anticipate growth, compared to 55% in February. Conversely, stagnation becomes the dominant scenario for 50% of them.
Strategic decisions are evolving. The percentage of companies declaring themselves not concerned about certain investments is increasing, especially in R&D and international, reflecting a refocusing on immediate priorities. Furthermore, 26% of executives are considering external growth operations, with 10% certain about it.
International tensions are again the main concern of executives: 61% place geopolitical issues at the top of their worries. Additionally, 64% believe that the conflict in the Middle East influences their perspectives.
Adaptation and refocusing strategies
In this context, companies are adjusting their strategies. Nearly 59% anticipate an impact on their prices, mostly increasing, due to energy costs. Supply chains are also evolving: 53% of executives are considering modifications, between diversification and reduction of suppliers.
Finally, energy projects are being reassessed. More than half of the executives foresee adjustments, between slowing down and accelerating investments. In this uncertain climate, some issues such as skills, cybersecurity, or regulation temporarily take a back seat, a sign of a strategic refocusing dictated by economic urgency.
