Surprising images emerge: a column of vehicles carrying Russian soldiers leaving the city of Kidal in northern Mali yesterday morning, a retreat without firing a single shot. The new masters of the city are Tuareg rebels allied with jihadists.
This Russian retreat is even more significant as, the day before, jihadists of the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM) claimed simultaneous attacks in several parts of the country, including Bamako, the capital. In their statement, they urged the Russians not to worry in order to preserve any future cooperation.
Indeed, the 2500 Russian soldiers present in Mali, members of the Africa Corps, the organization that succeeded the Wagner group, remained passive as the Bamako regime faced its worst security crisis since taking power five years ago. A setback for the Malian coup plotters who had ousted the former colonizer, France, in 2022, and a real failure for Russia, initially welcomed as a savior.
The Malian regime has undoubtedly suffered severe blows
The powerful Defense Minister was killed on Saturday in the attack on his residence, as jihadists and rebels simultaneously attacked several regions without being repelled, and it appears they have been able to extend their control over large parts of the country.
The capture of Kidal is highly symbolic. This stronghold of the Tuareg rebellion was reconquered in 2023 by the Malian army supported by the Russians, after eleven years in the hands of the Azawad supporters, the name given by the rebels to their region. This victory, achieved shortly after the departure of the French and the UN force, had strengthened the prestige of Colonel Assimi Goïta, the head of the junta.
Three years later, this strategy has failed
The seizure of power, with the dissolution of parties and the appointment of the head of state without elections, is poorly received by part of the population, often caught between two fires. A few months ago, Bamako experienced a real siege that prevented fuel from arriving from neighboring countries. While it is difficult to predict if the Malian government can fall, it is certainly in a precarious position.
The risk is twofold: first for Mali, which risks being divided between Tuareg separatists in the north and the different jihadist groups vying for territory. And for the region, as the GSIM, operating in Mali, is an Al Qaeda-affiliated group with regional ambitions. Niger and Burkina Faso, members along with Mali of the Sahel States Alliance, would be next in line if Bamako were to fall. And beyond, neighboring countries are already threatened by jihadist incursions.
This catastrophic situation is the epilogue of more than a decade of failure
Since France intervened in 2014 to save Bamako from a jihadist column, the French counteroffensive had allowed Mali to reconquer the north that had eluded them.
But the follow-up did not live up to this initial success, sparking growing frustration that led to military coups, the departure of the French, replaced by the Russians. Four years later, it is once again a failure, to the great dismay of the populations.
